In this Congress Senate Minority Leader A. Mitchell (Mitch) McConnell,
Jr. (R-KY) has real power. He has 49 Republican Senators to the
Democratic Majority's 51. However, in the Senate it takes 60 votes to
accomplish almost anything. The Majority often falls short of 60; thus
Mitch McConnell prevails. The Majority gets angrier as it fails to
achieve its objectives.
But McConnell has to worry about the next Congress. There is a real
possibility that he may not have more than 41 Senators, a few of those
possibly flakes. He may not be able to prevent the Majority from
securing 60 votes and if he cannot prevent that his power would almost
evaporate.
The landscape is as follows: all indications are that the Democrats will
have a winning candidate for the Presidency and it could be that the
Democratic candidate for President would win decisively. In that
scenario Republican candidates for the Senate would need to overcome a
Democratic candidate for the Presidency.
First, the Republicans are defending 23 seats in the Senate, the
Democrats only 12.
We begin with retirees. Senator Wayne Allard won twice in Colorado but
his retirement gives a real edge to Congressman Mark Udall. Colorado was
reliably Republican, but not any more. Democrats already hold one Senate
seat and a majority of House of Representative seats. A Udall victory is
very likely.
Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, who will be 81 in March, also is
retiring. Former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to Senator Warner) is
running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Republicans most likely
will have a nominating contest between Congressman Thomas F. Davis, III
and former Governor James S. Gilmore, III. Warner will have the
advantage. He is well liked and Virginia again is trending Democratic.
Virginia already has one Democratic Senator. As with Colorado, the last
Presidential race was close. Mark Warner will be difficult to defeat.
Next there is Nebraska. Two-term Senator Chuck Hagel is retiring.
Nebraska is a Republican State with a propensity to elect two Democratic
Senators. Nebraska already has one. Here it basically depends upon who
runs. If former Senator Robert (Bob) Kerrey were the Democratic nominee
he would be formidable. On the other hand if former Republican Governor
Michael O. Johanns were to run he might be able to win.
Then look at Senator Lindsey Graham's numbers in South Carolina. He
supported President George W. Bush's immigration bill. Many voters have
not forgiven him. He may face a primary.
Senator Elizabeth Hanford Dole's numbers in North Carolina are not
exactly inspiring. A strong Democrat possibly could defeat her.
Then there is Senator John Sununu. New Hampshire was a Republican
State-not any more. Former Governor Jeanne Sheehan is leading Sununu in
the polls by double digits. Sununu, although extremely bright and
energetic, is almost certain to go down to defeat.
Next is Minnesota. Senator Norm Coleman has performed well as a
Republican Senator. The only way he will be re-elected is if Al Franken
is the Democratic nominee. Franken has a serious primary. The outcome of
that primary likely will determine the outcome of the election.
And there is Alaska. Eighty-year-old Senator Ted Stevens is up for
re-election. Normally this would not be a contest. But the FBI is
investigating his dealings with a company which made repairs to his
home. The FBI also is investigating Stevens' son, a former Alaska State
Senator. Voters have not been kind to legislators under investigation.
Unless the FBI gives Stevens a clean bill of health, which is unlikely,
Stevens is likely to be in big trouble come election day.
Only one Democratic Senator appears vulnerable-Mary Landrieu of
Louisiana. She has been able to pull out tight races twice before. But
the demographics of Louisiana have changed since Katrina. This time a
strong Republican could defeat her.
It looks as if in a worse case scenario Republicans might lose seven and
gain one. That would leave McConnell with just 43 seats. That is an
unlikely number to prevent the Majority from attaining 60 votes. In
short, it goes not took good for Republicans in 2008 in the Senate. That
is unfortunate, as McConnell has been doing a very credible job as
Minority Leader.