In this Congress Senate Minority Leader A. Mitchell (Mitch) McConnell,
Jr. (R-KY) has real power. He has 49 Republican Senators to the
Democratic Majority's 51. However, in the Senate it takes 60 votes to
accomplish almost anything. The Majority often falls short of 60; thus
Mitch McConnell prevails. The Majority gets angrier as it fails to
achieve its objectives.
But McConnell has to worry about the next Congress. There is a real
possibility that he may not have more than 41 Senators, a few of those
possibly flakes. He may not be able to prevent the Majority from
securing 60 votes and if he cannot prevent that his power would almost
evaporate.
The landscape is as follows: all indications are that the Democrats will
have a winning candidate for the Presidency and it could be that the
Democratic candidate for President would win decisively. In that
scenario Republican candidates for the Senate would need to overcome a
Democratic candidate for the Presidency.
First, the Republicans are defending 23 seats in the Senate, the
Democrats only 12.
We begin with retirees. Senator Wayne Allard won twice in Colorado but
his retirement gives a real edge to Congressman Mark Udall. Colorado was
reliably Republican, but not any more. Democrats already hold one Senate
seat and a majority of House of Representative seats. A Udall victory is
very likely.
Senator John W. Warner of Virginia, who will be 81 in March, also is
retiring. Former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to Senator Warner) is
running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Republicans most likely
will have a nominating contest between Congressman Thomas F. Davis, III
and former Governor James S. Gilmore, III. Warner will have the
advantage. He is well liked and Virginia again is trending Democratic.
Virginia already has one Democratic Senator. As with Colorado, the last
Presidential race was close. Mark Warner will be difficult to defeat.
Next there is Nebraska. Two-term Senator Chuck Hagel is retiring.
Nebraska is a Republican State with a propensity to elect two Democratic
Senators. Nebraska already has one. Here it basically depends upon who
runs. If former Senator Robert (Bob) Kerrey were the Democratic nominee
he would be formidable. On the other hand if former Republican Governor
Michael O. Johanns were to run he might be able to win.
Then look at Senator Lindsey Graham's numbers in South Carolina. He
supported President George W. Bush's immigration bill. Many voters have
not forgiven him. He may face a primary.
Senator Elizabeth Hanford Dole's numbers in North Carolina are not
exactly inspiring. A strong Democrat possibly could defeat her.