Political analysts calculate that whereas only three Republican seats
were in danger in early 2005 the number now is higher than 40. Only 15
seats are necessary for the Democrats to win this time. Rumor has it
that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) already measured the
office of the Speaker for new drapes and carpeting in the event that she
gets to occupy the position.
When Nancy Pelosi was elected Minority Leader over the more moderate
Representative Steny H. Hoyer (D-MD) Republicans reacted with glee,
thinking that a San Francisco liberal as head of the House Democratic
Party would be helpful to them on a daily basis. It hasn't worked out
that way. Most voters have no idea who Ms. Pelosi is and as a result are
indifferent as to whether she becomes Speaker. In poll after poll some
70% or more of the voters think that the country is on the wrong track.
That number is truly misleading as every conservative I know would put
down "wrong track" if asked. So it isn't only liberals who think that
things are not going in the right direction.
Look at the high price of gasoline. We know constituents are angry about
that. At this stage it appears that they will take their frustrations
out on the Republicans. There is the war in Iraq. Fair or not, President
Bush has made the war in Iraq, which he believes is part of the War on
Terror, the centerpiece of his Administration. Nearly every day
Americans see images of their fellow citizens killed in Afghanistan,
Iraq or elsewhere. In addition, whereas a new government was supposed to
bring stability to Iraq, the level of violence is three times what it
was when the government was formed. We hear experts say that Iraq is in
the middle of a civil war. President Bush rejects that, but with troops
who were scheduled to come home extended another four months and with
2500 reservists called up, Americans do not see the light at the end of
the tunnel. I am sure there must be one-or is that a speeding locomotive
headed in my direction?
What about the economy? The President cites macro numbers as to how well
this nearly 8-trillion dollar economy is doing. But all consumers hear
is that the economy is slowing down, could be on the verge of a
recession and so on. They also hear about massive layoffs from the
automakers and from industry as a whole. Even the numbers are reflecting
an economy growing at a much more modest rate of 2.5% as opposed to 4%
growth earlier this year. Even so, voters do not make up their minds on
the macro figures the Administration provides. Rather they listen to
what they hear at the factory, in the neighborhood or at the lodge. In
those places, the economic miracle does not seem to have penetrated
their psyche.
But here is the kicker and the reason why the Democrats have reason to
be optimistic. Usually when pollsters ask about Congress, voters say
nasty things about that institution. But when asked about their own
Congressman, the voter says, oh, no, he is a good guy; we need to keep
him in. This year, as in 1994 when Republicans won every seat possible,
voters are saying bad things about Congress and then when asked about
their own Congressman, only 57% said we ought to keep him. 43% said
elect a new person. That number is bound to come down closer to the
elections but even if as few as 10% of voters insisted upon electing a
new Member it would be a revolution. Stay tuned.