What Future For Lieberman?

That same year in New York a three-way race developed for the Senate. The appointed incumbent, Senator Charles E. Goodell, had been a moderate Republican in the House. But as soon as he was appointed by Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller (R-NY) to the Senate he wasted no time in becoming a clone of ultra-liberal Republican Senator Jacob A. (Jack) Javits (R-NY). So Conservative Party nominee James L. Buckley, the brother of William F. Buckley of NATIONAL REVIEW and various television adventures, ran not only against the Democratic liberal but also against the Republican liberal. Then Vice President Spiro T. Agnew delivered a famous speech in New York in which he attacked Goodell and all but endorsed Buckley. Buckley won in a three-way contest. Conservatives argued strongly that since he was elected on the Conservative line, and since there was no other elected Conservative, he should form a caucus by himself. Buckley thought otherwise and caucused with the Republicans. That was the case for six years. Then Buckley ran for re-election as a Republican. He was soundly defeated by Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY). Buckley tried once more to be elected Senator, this time from Connecticut. Running as a Republican, Buckley was trounced in that election bid.

More recently, of course, there was one celebrated independent who, by leaving the Republican Caucus and joining the Democratic Caucus, caused control of the Senate to switch from Republican to Democrat. James P. Jeffords had his 15 minutes of fame by causing the Democrats to control the Senate. He became a committee chairman for about 18 months. Then Republicans won back control of the Senate. When Jeffords switched he had just been re-elected in the 2000 election as a Republican. Now, six years later, Jeffords is retiring. The Republicans were gunning for him and the Democrats were not all that enthusiastic about him either.

Had Buckley followed the advice of those who helped elect him on the Conservative line (New York has multiple parties and a candidate may choose to run on one of several different lines) he might have survived the 1976 election. There was a real feeling of a pox on both of your houses in New York. Even though Buckley would caucus by himself, he could have carved out a place for himself as a true independent. By becoming Richard M. Nixon's favorite Republican, as one magazine article put it, Buckley seemed to fade in significance as the term wore on.

Back to Senator Lieberman, who has a decent chance of being elected as an independent in a three-way race. Republicans are running a weak candidate who was thought to be a sacrificial lamb against Lieberman. Now that Ned Lamont is the Democratic nominee there is a whole different picture. Some Republicans are pushing to get a stronger candidate on the ballot. Unless that happens, and it doesn't appear that it will, Senator Lieberman will likely get the support of many Republicans inasmuch as the issue in his primary campaign was that he was too close to President George W. Bush. Lamont even ran a TV ad showing President Bush planting a kiss on Senator Lieberman's cheek on his way down the House of Representatives main aisle to deliver the State of the Union message.

Lieberman already has announced that if re-elected he will continue to caucus with the Democrats. That cannot be a comfortable decision. Most in the Democratic Caucus will have supported Lamont. Even several Senators who endorsed Lieberman in his re-election bid have withdrawn their endorsement now that Lamont is the Democrat nominee. But what are the alternatives? He could elect to caucus with the Republicans but that would be equally uncomfortable. Except for his support of the war on terrorism Lieberman is a garden-variety liberal Democrat. True, he has flirted with school choice and he has given lip service some of the morality questions, but on abortion, for example, he votes with the liberals all the way-this despite the fact that Lieberman calls himself an Orthodox Jew. Orthodox Jews are prolife. Some have denounced him for that and other reasons. He could caucus by himself. That may be very lonely since the Senate is really an exclusive club.

On the other hand, he may be able to carve out a unique place in Senate history. If he were elected as an independent and remained as an independent he well could become a third force in American politics. That is unlikely to happen just because Lieberman has so many friends in the Democratic Caucus. He can forgive them if they have supported Lamont. And let us not assume that Lieberman is going to win. Lamont is a good campaigner and Connecticut is a very liberal state. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see if good old Joe can win a fourth term by playing between both major parties.