Now Lieberman has announced that if he loses the Democratic Primary he
will run as an independent. But he added, if elected as an independent,
he would still caucus with the Democrats in Washington. That is not
enough for liberal Senators such as Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY). She
announced that if Lamont won the Democratic Primary she would support
him over Lieberman.
That is confusing to both her supporters and opponents alike. Senator
Clinton has been a big-time supporter of the war in Iraq. She got booed
by fellow Democrats when she opposed setting a timetable for pulling out
of Iraq. So war supporters are saying if you really are with us how
could you abandon Lieberman in his time of need. Opponents of the war
think Senator Clinton's statement of willingness to support Lamont if he
won the primary is just a gesture toward them while she continues to
support the war.
If Lieberman loses the August 8th primary he has until the very next day
to present 7,500 valid signatures to qualify to run as an independent.
Some states have laws which prevent losers from running on another party
line but Connecticut is not one of them.
Interestingly, the fact that Weicker was elected as an independent helps
Lieberman in that regard. The argument cannot be made that an
independent could not win.
One other prominent Connecticut candidate ran as an independent but
lost. The father of the current senior Senator Christopher J. Dodd,
Thomas J. Dodd, was censured by the Senate. He was then denied the
Democratic nomination for re-election to the Senate in 1968. He ran well
in a three-man race but not well enough. Dodd, like Lieberman, was known
for his support of a strong national defense. While Lieberman worries
about the advance of Muslim extremists, Dodd worried about the advance
of the Soviet Union. It was the censure, for his allegedly misusing
campaign funds, which killed the elder Senator Dodd, not his
anti-Communism.
So far Lieberman is ahead in the Democratic Primary. But the gap has
narrowed. Lamont, a complete newcomer to statewide politics, has made a
race of it. He appears to be closing in on Lieberman, with eight weeks
to go before the primary. The problem for Lieberman is that no one knows
what a light voter turnout will mean. Clearly Lamont's voters have the
greater intensity and are likely to turn out. Even veteran pollsters say
the race is too difficult to read at this point.
Lieberman has accused Lamont of running a single-issue campaign-namely,
the war. But in a sense, by dissenting vigorously from what has become
the Democratic Party's orthodoxy-namely, opposition to the
war--Lieberman has invited a single-issue campaign against him. Lamont
is saying, in so many words, if you are against the war, now is the
chance to make a stand, through me, and I will not disappoint you.
Lieberman, for his part, has not backed down one bit. He believes,
contrary to news reports, things are getting better in Iraq and it would
be a mistake for the United States to abandon the Iraqi people now.
What happens in Connecticut will have profound implications nationwide.
If Lamont won the primary it would be a signal to Democrats everywhere
to oppose the war, regardless of their personal feelings. If Lieberman
won the primary it would be a signal that there is still room for
dissenters from liberal orthodoxy inside the Democratic Party. Should
Lieberman run and win as an independent it would shake the Democratic
Party to the core. If Lieberman lost the primary and ran as an
independent candidate there would be a three-way race. Under those
circumstances the national GOP possibly would be willing to back the
Republican nominee with significant dollars. A Republican could win
under those circumstances whereas if Lieberman won the Democratic
Primary, he would coast to re-election and Republicans would not be a
factor.
If you want a preview of coming events such as November, stay tuned to
Connecticut in August. For some it may be a long hot summer.