But that $1,385 figure is only an average. New York taxpayers would need to contribute more than $2,250 per household per year over the next 30 years, according to their analysis. In Oregon, the amount is $2,140; in Ohio, it is $2,051; in New Jersey, $2,000.
If we dont get the problem under control, this cliff keeps getting higher, making, as the professors put it, the $1,385 per-household increase required today seem cheap.
How did we find ourselves on top of such a steep fiscal cliff?
Well, that brings us back to politicians. These are the folks we vote into office at the state and local level. They face similar pressures that politicians in Washington, DC, face. Whatever their intentions when going into office, while there they are surrounded not by normal citizens, but by state functionaries, by public servants. And these are awfully nice people who any reasonable person wants to help. So, when politicians sit down with government employee union reps and the head bureaucrats, to determine rates of compensation, including benefits, its awfully tempting to be generous.
With our money.
With money the politicians havent collected yet, in taxes, and we havent even made yet, in our salaries and profits and the like.
Its the old principal/agent problem writ enormous. The principals whose fortunes are in jeopardy (the taxpayers) are stuck with agents (politicians and top bureaucrats) who have trouble (to say the least) negotiating in the interest of those principals.
And they obviously lack principles. Principles are hard to maintain, when they deal with raw interests all day, the cajoling of the people they must negotiate with. And taxpayers? They think about them only at election time, and besides, most of them know nothing about what has been done in their name and with their money.
So politicians have got into this habit of setting up really cushy pensions for state and local government employees, promising a lot, but not always (or even, these days, usually) investing the money at time of employment. They define benefits to be distributed/collected in the future, but they dont define adequate contributions at time of service.
Then, add to this inherent insolvency the common practice of employees outrageously gaming the system, spiking their benefits to the tune of millions over decades of retirement — like the Illinois teachers union lobbyist did by teaching a single day in the classroom.
Thankfully, some states and municipalities have seen the light. That is, they realize that promises alone do not a pension system make. (Promises alone are basically fraud. But just let that statement linger in your mind.) They have begun a few reforms, as Novy-Marx and Rauh relate:
Most states have traditional defined-benefit pension systems, which guarantee a certain payment upon retirement. In the past 10 years a handful of states have added defined-contribution elements, in which workers share in the market risk of their pension investments, as most private-sector workers do through IRAs or 401(k) plans.
Most of these modifications, however, affect only new hires. Under legislation Virginia passed in April, for example, new employees will have about 40 percent of their defined-benefit pensions replaced by small 401(k)-style plans. As a result, Virginias annual household burden of $1,066 will fall around 20 percent. Virginias load will remain heavier than that of Maryland, which is in better shape than all but 12 states but nonetheless requires an additional $818 per household each year. Even Indiana, the state in the best condition, would need to increase contributions by $329 per household each year to meet its pension obligations.
Obviously, the looming fiscal cliff is not going to be easy to avoid, for even todays savviest politicians have only negotiated partial solutions. The authors see the inevitable problems, for substantial revenue increases or spending cuts are required to pay for pension promises to public employees even if pension promises are frozen at todays levels. So though hard freezes of promised payouts would help, they wouldnt prevent disaster.
And what is that disaster, at bottom? As Thomas Jefferson pointed out, it is a great injustice for one generation to burden the next. And thats what politicians do — its almost official policy — in these United States these days.
The citizens alternative, as I see it, is to assert a new constitutional limit.
By initiative where possible.
We must prohibit governments at all levels from promising defined benefit pensions. When it comes to government employees, the only pension allowable should be the kind where the contribution is defined at time of wage payment, and is handed off to each employees designated agent. It could be a union. (That would give unions something good to do.) Or it could be a lawyer, or an investment management firm. Or the funds could be immediately converted to gold, for safe keeping. It doesnt much matter to the taxpayers what a worker wishes to do with his pension, so long as we are not on the hook for loss. One benefit of this would be that government employees would, of a sudden, be converted to supporters of sound fiscal and monetary policies, simply to protect their futures. They would be investing in the market, not in government.
By the very nature of their job, politicians are in charge of a lot of sharp knives and loaded guns. But we cant let them send us marching over the cliff. We must cordon off this danger once and for all.