No wonder the undercurrent in a lot of conversations these days is the idea of just not paying the debt back.
Conservatives used to attack liberals for throwing money at problems. With George W. Bush (unrepentant bailer-outer) and Barack Obama, perhaps the phrase should be amended: Throwing borrowed money hysterically . . . in the audacious hope that something might stick.
But throwing around newly created money doesnt seem any better. Theres a reason why Ron Pauls more popular now than ever, the Federal Reserve has become a laughingstock, and the Austrian School of Economics is experiencing a revival amongst regular folk as well as intellectuals.
The Keynesian/monetarist impasse now discredits itself in the marketplace of ideas in its most watered-down form, as a political compromise, the dual Keynesian/monetarist One-Two Punch of the money-throwers in Washington. Neither Keynes nor Friedman would likely approve of todays take on their ideas, but, hey, intellectually neither side ever sported a theory of capital structure, of how production really works, where progress actually comes from.
More to the point, with our leaders hysterically throwing money around in two different ways, its harder and harder to make sense of the ideas behind government macro-management. Government cant manage. It cant even set up pension systems properly. How can it manage the economy?
Fed wisdom is so low on the popularity index that Time blogger Stephen Gandel wonders about a Fedamageddon, a Civil War. Over monetary policy.
Well, somethings gotta give, somehow. If our leaders remain so intellectually bankrupt as to offer only more debt and more monetary creation as the solution, our problems can only grow. Until utter debacle. Or über debacle.
Though I dont see any easy way out of this, at present (given current conditions), inflation, boom, and bust do not have to be a way of life. We could establish sound money along with sound fiscal policy.
Under such policy, markets can correct themselves after a bubble bursts, without reflating the previous bubble or starting a new cycle of boom and bust. But to allow for this self-correction (the last time this happened in anything close to a pure form was in the early 20s), politicians have to remain humble, not promise the moon, not save us from every heartache and tragedy. People in markets must see prices fall, and react accordingly. There must be no artificial barriers (price floors or ceilings) in housing prices or wages or farm products or what-have-you.
Further, we must realize that the major cause of continuation of the current bearish economy is low expectations. This comes down to one word: fear.
Fear . . . that the government will do all the wrong things.
The cure for this fear is not monetary fiddling. Its not bailing out creditors or car companies. Its doing the right thing. With entitlements, with budget deficits, with all the current structural problems of government. Were these elements addressed, and politicians serious about not making matters worse by socializing whole sectors of the economy (can you say health care?), recovery would come galloping back.
Without a bust waiting round the next bend.
But, to do that, another crucial bubble must burst: The idea that politicians and bureaucratic experts just know how to run an economy. Pricking that bit of hubris needs to become a major sport. Boom and bust aint over until this last bubble pops.