Then came October 29, 1929. Black Tuesday. Looking back, Robert E. Levy would recall walking from the brokerage house on Wall Street all the way up Broadway to his boarding house, watching the crowds of desperate depositors form at every bank he passed. The great bank run was on.
What he remembered most about that day was the taste of strawberries. Still a Texas boy, he'd stop and buy a handful at every fruit stand he passed, and keep walking through the panic. (The apple stands of the Great Depression would come only later, manned by former bankers and stockjobbers.) By the time Robert E. Levy got uptown, a realization had formed: Texas was the place to be.
His friends urged him to stay. This was just a blip, they assured him. It would pass and the market would recover. It did -- in about 50 years. People forget now, but the Depression, The Depression, didn't come on all of a sudden, despite the drama of the Crash. It came in dips and dabs, ups and downs. The market actually showed signs of recovery for a time. This, too, would pass, said the wise old heads, older than they were wise. Why, prosperity was just around the corner. The president of the United States said so. (Sound familiar?)
All of which brings us back to Creditanstalt. A forgotten name today, it would make headlines all over Europe in May of 1931: Viennese Bank Fails/ Bank Runs Spread. The news didn't get much play here. That year's Banking Crisis was happening in far-away Europe. In a little country that didn't matter. It could never happen here.
Today the bank runs are forming on a little island in the Mediterranean far away from the banking centers of Europe. Be assured that the euro is ... sound as a dollar, as they used to say. Relax. Europe's bankers will muddle through as they always have, maybe with a little help from our own Ben Bernankes and Timothy Geithners. Not to mention Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Whale Trades. All those fiscal savants. They know.
Compared to the assurances of sophisticated financiers like these, the simple words of an English housewife -- who somehow became the most successful British prime minister in recent times -- are now as forgotten as she is:
"The European single currency is bound to fail, economically, politically and indeed socially, though the timing, occasion and full consequences are all necessarily still unclear." --Margaret Thatcher.
Why? Because, not to put too fine a point on it, not everybody on that continent can live off the Germans, and the Germans themselves grow tired of supporting the rest of Europe.
Today's financial crisis in Europe may yet be papered over, just as the collapse of Creditanstalt was decades ago. But where will the next crack in the facade appear?
Today's little country that isn't supposed to matter, today's first shaking domino in a long row, is called Cyprus. Remember the name.