We the Punditry have had this presidential campaign figured out for some
time:
Only last summer, John McCain, that stalwart defender of the war in Iraq and
on terror in general, was finished. Down and out. Kaput. Another victim of
the Bush malaise. His presidential campaign had been sunk by the country's
frustrations with an unwinnable war. He was out of money, his chief honchos
had quit, and the only question remaining was why he didn't seem to realize
it.
But some guys just never get the word. The war is turning around, thanks in
large part to the Surge that John McCain had been arguing for long before it
had a name. He's staged one of the most remarkable comebacks in American
political history mainly on the strength of his own dogged determination to
stick by his guns, literally.
Sen. McCain's comeback owes less to any political savvy on his part than to
the valor of the men and women of the armed forces of the United States -
and the imagination and flexibility of a new commander in the field named
David Petraeus. Not to mention a president and commander-in-chief who
refused to give up, and may have finally found his Grant.
Soon after Super Tuesday, which prompted Mitt Romney to throw in the towel,
Sen. McCain became the Republicans' presumptive nominee. And presumption it
was, since Mike Huckabee has refused to give up and keeps rolling up
impressive vote totals - not just in the South, border states, and among
evangelicals everywhere, but in places like Kansas and Washington state.
Like John McCain, he doesn't seem to know when he's beat, either.
Here's the big reason for the Huck's staying power: Now that Mitt Romney has
"suspended" his presidential campaign, Arkansas' native son has become the
default candidate of the kind of Republican voters who can be counted on to
resist supporting a winner. They'd rather lose this year's presidential
election than win it with a candidate who's got a mind, and will, of his
own.
But that's no problem for John McCain, the opinion-makers concluded. If he
can't unite the country behind him, then, once Hillary Clinton cinched the
Democratic nomination, she'd unite the GOP quickly enough - against her.
Oops again. Senator Clinton now has been forced into a long, exhausting
fight with an attractive young comer who has the power to inspire in a way
Clinton femmenever could. At this point the
Clinton camp seems to be drifting, bereft of any real ideas about how to
stem this political tide.
This weekend the suddenly former frontrunner for the Democratic presidential
nomination was shifting some of the chairs on the foundering ship S.S.
Clinton. She fired her campaign manager after Barack Obama swept a round of
primaries and caucuses - Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington state, Maine, the
Virgin Islands.
Hillary! may yet pull this thing out of the
fire, but it won't be easy. For one thing, there's her Bill problem. William
Jefferson Clinton used to have the surest of political instincts. Now every
time he speaks up for the Mrs., he alienates more voters. He seems to have
lost his touch. All those post-presidential years hobnobbing with the power
elite from Davos to Kazakhstan may have taken their toll. It's as if he'd
turned into one of those corporate fat cats he used to inveigh against.
Obamamania mounts across the country, and the Clintonistas still struggle to
counter it. Catch phrases (Experience! Ready to do the job from Day One!)
may not work against a self-possessed candidate the likes of which Democrats
haven't seen since Gene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy back in 1968. Barack
Obama seems to combine the appeal of both, not to mention the grace of JFK
in 1960.
Once again a new generation is insisting on being heard, and it's being
joined this election year by the generation still suffering from Clinton
Fatigue and eager to, yes, move on.
The real drama this year has not been the fall of Hillary Clinton but the
rise of Barack Obama. He's got the touch of the great politician, which
isn't easy to define but is immediately evident on the campaign trail. Call
it charisma, magnetism, charm.
Camus once defined charm as "a way of getting the answer yes without having
asked any clear questions." Any slight policy differences that Barack Obama
may have with Hillary Clinton may be unclear, but the two couldn't be more
different. She seems charmless, he irresistible. The personal, as it turns
out, really is the political.
Who would have thought it? Eloquence still seems to matter in American
politics. So does a dogged insistence on victory, however improbable it may
seem at times. See the surprising strength of both Barack Obama and John
McCain.
One of the surest signs of a free country is that it'll surprise you. A lot.
By that standard, there's no doubt that this is still the land of the free.
More surprises doubtless await in what already has been a most surprising
year.