Imagine the progress Franklin D. Roosevelt might have made as
commander-in-chief of American forces during the Second World War if only he
could have had the benefit of advice from James Baker, Lee Hamilton and the
other members of the Iraq Study Group. Today's column applies its
lessons-indeed, whole sections of its text-to that earlier quagmire:
February 25, 1943
Washington, D.C.
Mr. President:
It is an honor and privilege to present you and the Congress with the
attached 79 recommendations which are detailed in the following 50 pages. In
addition you will find a 40-page preface summarizing the state of the
current conflict, plus maps, lists of the experts whose advice contributed
to our disinterested conclusions, and full biographies of the commissioners
who participated in this bipartisan study. (Autographed photographs are
available on request.)
After long and arduous study at a generally safe distance, and by matching
the self-evident with the undeniable, offsetting every platitude with a
generality, and scrupulously avoiding unhelpful and provocative concepts
like honor and victory, we now have reached a carefully balanced bipartisan
consensus sure to give no offense or risk dangerous specifics, to wit:
The situation worldwide is grave and deteriorating. There is no path that
can guarantee success, but the prospects can be improved. During the past
nine months we have considered a full range of approaches for moving
forward. All have flaws. Our recommended course has shortcomings, but we
firmly believe that it includes the best strategies and tactics to
positively influence the outcome.
Despite the greatest mass mobilization in our country's history, the enemy
remains on the offensive and is proceeding to expand its earlier gains. To
quote one of the distinguished historians on our extensive panel of
consultants: "So swift and far-reaching were the Axis victories during the
first six months of 1942 that it seemed the United Nations had lost the
warŠ." -Arthur S. Link, professor of history, Northwestern University, in
his "American Epoch."
Within days of their disastrously effective attack on Pearl Harbor, the
Japanese opened a successful offensive all across the Pacific, and as of
this writing control Hong Kong, Malaya, the Philippines, and a number of
lesser outposts. Guam, Wake Island and Singapore have been overrun. Most of
Burma is lost, and India and Ceylon are threatened. The Japanese navy
largely controls the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. Except for a
remnant that has made its way to Australia, the Allied fleet has been
destroyed in the Java Sea campaign.
In view of Japanese dominance in the Pacific theater, it is time to open
negotiations looking to a stable and enduring peace in the Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere. The results of Operation TORCH in North Africa have
proved no less disheartening. Despite early progress, the outlook is bleak,
as this week's news from Kasserine Pass illustrates.
With only some exceptions, our allies falter and retreat. In contrast to
early and overly optimistic reports from the boisterous General Geo. S.
Patton, enemy forces under the command of a seasoned and daring strategist,
Field Marshal Erwin J.E. Rommel, aka The Desert Fox, continue to inflict
heavy damage and threaten the progress of our arms.
Appeals to Wilsonian ideals like freedom and self-determination cannot
compete with traditional European and Asiatic modes of thinking that
emphasize nationalism and obedience to a strong leader. We have become
involved in lands whose culture and languages are woefully beyond our
understanding, and with which we have little if anything in common.
All of continental Europe is in Axis hands, and the Free French represent
little more than a paper army compared to Vichy under Marshal Petain. Our
British ally is exhausted despite the bravado shown by their unrealistic and
ineffective leader, whatever his oratorical gifts. At best we may hope to
make alliances with disaffected or captured leaders of the enemy like the
late Admiral Darlan, and even such "allies" may not prove reliable as the
tides of war turn.
What course do we recommend? Given the weakness of our allies, the United
States should launch a new diplomatic offensive to build an international
consensus for stability, reconciliation and the reconstruction of Europe and
Asia. The ambitions of Germany, Italy and Japan should be left to a
revitalized League of Nations to deal with while we strive to reach a modus
vivendi with their leaders.
There must be a renewed and sustained commitment to a three-state solution
in the Balkan tinderbox, which remains a central issue in this worldwide
conflict. Until the peace process there is reinvigorated through U.S.
intervention at the highest levels, there is little hope for a broader
peace. The U.S. commitment must include direct talks with, by and between
Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and any other Balkan nations that
recognize each other's right to exist.
There is no magic formula to solve the world's problems. However, there are
actions that can be taken to improve the situation and protect American
interests. Many Americans are dissatisfied, as the midterm elections of 1942
demonstrated, not just with the war but with the state of our political
debate regarding the war.
Our political leaders must build a bipartisan approach to bring a
responsible conclusion to what has become a costly conflict. Our country
deserves a debate that prizes substance over rhetoric, and a policy that is
adequately funded and sustainable. The president and Congress must work
together. Our leaders must be candid and forthright with the American people
in order to win their support.
No one can guarantee that any course of action at this point will stop the
growing violence or a slide toward chaos. If current trends continue, the
potential consequences are severe. Despite a massive effort, stability
remains elusive and the situation is deteriorating. The ability of the
United States to shape outcomes is diminishing. Time is running out. Because
none of the operations conducted by U.S. and Allied forces are fundamentally
changing the conditions encouraging the violence, U.S. forces seem to be
caught in a mission that has no foreseeable end.
Because of the role and responsibility of the United States, and the
commitments our government has made, the United States has special
obligations. Mr. President, if you're still with us, our country must
address as best as possible the world's many problems. The United States has
long-term relationships and interests at stake in the world and needs to
stay engaged.
Respectfully submitted