Pat Buchanan

Why was there no Bradley Effect in Iowa? Because in Iowa they have to vote in public, while in New Hampshire they have the privacy, the secrecy, of the voting booth.

But this explanation has about it an aura of spin and sour grapes. How can the Bradley Effect explain why John Edwards, the hedge fund populist, collapsed? How does the Bradley Effect explain why women surged to Hillary, 57 percent of them, while men stayed with Barack?

The real divide in the Democratic Party is the clash between the McGovern wing -- the highly educated and the college young -- against the Humphrey-Mondale wing. And while African-Americans are moving to Obama because he is one of them, women, a majority in the party, are moving to Hillary because she is one of them. Blacks and women are dividing in the Democratic Party over the issue of: Do we want the first black president or the first woman president? And in the first major battle of the Brothers & Sisters War, the sisters won.

This could get ugly. As Hillary's victory in New Hampshire is being attributed to the Bradley Effect -- i.e, white racism -- any Barack victory in South Carolina will now be attributed to the black vote, what in the Old South they used to call "the bloc vote."

Obama could cease to be a crossover candidate and rapidly be relegated to the Jesse Jackson role -- the African-American perennial runner-up who is ceded the black and liberal vote -- and bought off with a prime-time speech at the convention and a campaign plane in the fall.

Racism was not responsible for Obama's defeat in the Granite State. Indeed, race is the reason for his rise from nowhere. Race is the reason the liberals are kneeling in adoration. And gender is not Hillary's problem. Gender is Hillary's biggest asset in a party mired since the 1960s in ethnic, gender and race politics.

In the last New Hampshire debate, Hillary was asked about her likability, why so many folks seemed to like Obama more. She gave the sweet answer of the schoolgirl: "Well, that hurts my feelings. ... He's very likable. I agree with that," referring to Obama. "I don't think I'm that bad."

"You're likable enough, Hillary," Obama sneered.

In that moment, the "fairy tale" may have just gone poof.

Pat Buchanan

Pat Buchanan is a founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, and the author of many books including State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America .
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