But Sharon's Israel has already rejected the plan. Israelis argue that it does not follow the formula for peace laid out by President Bush. They demand a permanent end to all acts of terror before they even begin to negotiate.
On this issue, again, Powell, Blair and former aides to Bush I will be on the side of negotiations, while the Pentagon, the Israelis and their allies in Congress and the media will fiercely resist.
5. What about North Korea? This is the acid test of the Bush Doctrine. While Iran is challenging the doctrine by mining uranium and building nuclear reactors that Teheran insists are for peaceful purposes, North Korea is defying it. There is no peaceful purpose to Yongbyon. Nor is the uranium-enrichment facility, buried somewhere in the North, designed for any purpose other than secret production of fissile material for atomic weapons.
A reasonable analyst must conclude that Pyongyang is building atomic weapons to deter or blackmail the United States and, possibly, for sale to terrorist organizations. What are we going to do about it?
Thus far, the answer is nothing. A strike on Yongbyon appears to have been ruled out, as bombing could not destroy the underground nuclear facilities whose whereabouts are unknown. But that strike might trigger a devastating artillery barrage on South Korea, killing thousands. It might also provoke missile strikes on U.S. bases in Asia and on Japan with chemical, biological or even atomic weapons.
What about offering North Korea recognition, aid and a non-aggression pact, all of which it demands, for an agreement to demolish its nuclear facilities and give up its fissile material?
Most Americans would prefer that deal to war, as would South Korea and Japan. But if North Korea cheated on the 1994 agreement, why would it not accept the U.S. concessions, then cheat on this one?
If the United States turns it attention to Syria, and not North Korea, the message will be clear: The only way to avoid shock and awe from the United States is to build the only kind of weapons that seem to intimidate the Americans: nuclear weapons.