The most recent polls show that if the election were held now, Ortega would garner 32 percent of the vote -- just three percent short of what he needs to claim a first-round victory. Jose Rizo, a former vice president and the PLC -- or Liberal Party candidate has 27 percent of the electorate and Foggy Bottom's anointed aspirant, Eduardo Montealegre, trails with 15 percent. The balance of the vote appears to be split between former Sandinistas Edmundo Jarquin (14 percent) and Eden Pastora with 2 percent.
Unfortunately, official U.S. policy in Nicaragua has been blind to the realities of Nicaraguan politics. The country has only two parties that matter -- the Sandinistas' FSLN and the PLC. Together, they command nearly 85 percent of the vote. Because of past scandals in the PLC -- with which Rizo has no connection -- U.S. diplomats in Managua have distanced themselves from his candidacy and promoted what they call "support for emerging forces." The result: a fractured democratic opposition to the Sandinistas.
Hopefully, the most recent polls -- and the earful Rumsfeld received this week about the insidious role being played by Chavez, Castro and their cronies -- will wake up Washington before it's too late. U.S. diplomats in Latin America in general -- and Nicaragua in particular -- act and speak as though everyone in the region thinks we're "ugly Americans." It's simply not true.
There are millions of our southern neighbors -- small "d" democrats, entrepreneurs and labor leaders -- who are counting on the United States to stand up for our own interests -- and the cause of liberty in their countries. Many of them -- like Presidents Alvaro Uribe in Colombia and Tony Saca in El Salvador have put their lives on the line to achieve and preserve democracy. They have watched with alarm as the will of the people was perverted by Chavez in Venezuela and distorted by Morales in Bolivia -- and they know the consequences for foreign investment, development and economic opportunity.
This sad outcome doesn't have to happen in Nicaragua -- but it will require an abrupt reality check at the State Department. The United States doesn't need to launch an "Uncle Sam says: Vote for Rizo" campaign -- but we must act now to level the playing field and help unite the anti-Sandinista opposition.
Our ambassador, Paul Trivelli, has to stop pressuring private sector leaders with potential reprisals for supporting the PLC. And when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice returns from her Mid-East trip -- she should head to Managua and meet with all the presidential candidates -- including the now shunned Rizo. Doing these things now might well prevent people asking next year: "Who lost Nicaragua?"