Mona Charen

Even as Republicans have benefited from dissatisfaction with the passage of Obamacare -- the symbol of all that is wrong with Democratic governance -- some polls suggest that enthusiasm for repeal is mixed. While conservatives long to annul that execrable law and replace it with thoroughgoing free market reforms, the electorate is not so unambiguous. According to an AP poll, while 37 percent of likely voters favor outright repeal of Obamacare, 36 percent want the law modified to do even more. When likely voters were asked whom they trust more as stewards of the health care system, 46 percent cited Democrats and 47 percent cited Republicans -- a statistical tie. And those under the age of 30 were most likely to favor expanding the health care law.

A strong majority of likely voters, 56 percent, according to a CBS poll, are optimistic about the next two years of the Obama presidency. And as recently as last month, a larger portion of respondents to an AP poll (68 percent) disapproved of Republicans in Congress as disapproved of Democrats (60 percent).

Republicans and business interests continue to be blamed by a majority of voters for the recession. A Bloomberg poll found that 88 percent pointed to the mortgage industry, and 82 percent to Wall Street and bankers for the economic crisis. Sixty-six percent of respondents blame George W. Bush's stewardship for the poor state of the economy, 57 percent cited Republicans in Congress, and 53 percent named congressional Democrats. Only 32 percent of respondents to a WSJ/NBC poll said that Obama's policies were responsible for the poor economy.

Obama and the Democrats misinterpreted the 2008 results -- concluding that the nation's exhaustion with Bush represented a wholesale conversion to aggressive liberalism. Newt Gingrich and the Republicans similarly misread the 1994 election, concluding that rejection of President Clinton's initial policies represented a comprehensive endorsement of a conservative, small-government philosophy.

Wise Republicans will pocket the coming victory but hold the hubris. One in ten Americans is out of a job. Independents are swinging, for now, to the opposition party. But the case for free market reforms -- in health care and in other realms -- has yet to be made. Republicans are being offered an opportunity to persuade, nothing more.

Mona Charen

Mona Charen is a syndicated columnist, political analyst and author of Do-Gooders: How Liberals Hurt Those They Claim to Help .
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