This conventional wisdom about World War I continues to affect our thinking about war and diplomacy to this day. But as several recent historians, including Andrew Roberts ("A History of the English-Speaking Peoples Since 1900") and Patrick Glynn ("Closing Pandora's Box"), have pretty conclusively demonstrated, this is a fable. World War I was the result of the Kaiser's desire to dominate Europe.
This is not to say that diplomacy is stupid or useless. Hardly. It serves a critical function in avoiding conflict when one nation sends accurate signals to another about how aggression will be confronted. The most obvious negative case is probably the disastrous meeting between April Glaspie, U.S. ambassador to Iraq, and Saddam Hussein before the Gulf War. Glaspie told Saddam that the U.S. had no interest in his dispute with Kuwait, thus seeming to offer a green light to his aggression. It is probable that if Glaspie had issued a stern warning, the invasion would not have happened.
But diplomacy that is not backed by the threat of force is gaseous and futile. What shall we say to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that can possibly improve our relations? Gee, we really wish you wouldn't stone adulteresses to death and threaten a second Holocaust on the Jews. Will he slap his forehead and exclaim, "Oh gosh, you thought we meant those things? Those were just jokes"?
Back to the Democrats and Iraq. One sure thing about diplomacy is that you cannot go backwards. Warnings, demarches and talks can prevent war from erupting, but after you've already resorted to the use of force, there is no going back to diplomacy. "Cooperate with me or I'll, I'll . . ." what?
The hard truth is that progress in Iraq (and there has been some since the surge began) is painstakingly slow. It will require patience and grit to prevail. But to suggest that diplomacy can solve this problem now is pure fantasy.