This is not to suggest that elections teach us nothing. The 2004 results certainly prove that the economy -- or perceptions about the economy -- are not always determinative. Only 47 percent of the electorate rated the economy as excellent or good. But the incumbent was re-elected. Before every recent conflict in American history, the experts have warned that the American people have no stomach for sacrifice and will tolerate very few losses in battle. President Bush challenged that assumption. He asked the American people to support not just a punishment raid on Afghanistan, but a far-reaching war on terror that would include overthrowing one of the terror masters -- the monster Saddam Hussein.
It has not been easy, and we have suffered more casualties than predicted. Still, it seems that a majority (52 percent) of the country continues to believe that going to war in Iraq was the right decision. They say this despite the fact that only 45 percent believe things are going "somewhat" (34 percent) or "very well" (11 percent) for us there. A solid 55 percent agree with the president that the war in Iraq is a part of the war on terror, and not, as Kerry would have it (on some days), a distraction from it. That suggests a mature electorate, willing to support a policy they believe is right even when it brings short-term hardship.
Finally, there is a yellow light blinking in the exit poll data that Republicans will ignore at their peril. Though only 8 percent of voters said health care was the "most important issue" in this campaign, they did register worry about it -- a worry that could become more decisive should foreign policy become less salient in coming elections. Ninety-three percent of voters described themselves as "very" (70 percent) or "somewhat" (23 percent) concerned about the cost and availability of healthcare.
George W. Bush and the Republican Congress have a full plate.