American political history sends a clear message on this question: even the most popular and dynamic third party candidates stand no chance of leaping over the Constitutional hurdles to win the presidency. Three former presidents tried to capitalize on their personal popularity and ran third party campaigns (Martin Van Buren in 1848, Millard Fillmore in 1856, and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912) but none of them came vaguely close to victory. TR ran the strongest race among the ex-Presidents with his "Bull Moose" Progressive campaign, drawing 27% of the popular vote (an all-time high for a minor party candidate) but Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson crushed him in the electoral college, 435 to 88.
No potential third party contender in 2012 could come close to replicating Roosevelt's national popularity exactly one hundred years ago -- not Hillary Clinton, not David Petraeus, not Michael Bloomberg, not Oprah Winfrey herself -- no one. In fact, it's hard to imagine any candidate other than President Obama or the GOP nominee carrying even a single state. (Teddy Roosevelt won just 6).
Which states could a third party candidate conceivably win next year? Political handicappers assembled by USA Today ranked Barack Obama as a sure winner in states totaling 196 electoral votes, and the GOP nominee (whoever it turns out to be) a can't-lose proposition in states amounting to 191 electoral votes. This leaves eleven states as battlegrounds, for 151 electoral votes. Even if some Americans Elect, bi-partisan type were to slip in-between the polarized and competitive parties to win a few (or even all) of the up-for-grabs battleground states, then he (or she) would still fall far short of the 270 needed for election.
And in the solidly Democratic states (California, New York, Massachusetts, and so forth) no middle-of-the-road independent candidate will likely deny Barack Obama his victory, just as any third-party effort to steal one of the sure-thing anti-Obama, GOP states (Texas, Alaska, Utah, Alabama, etc.) will gain no traction.
Even the most optimistic Third Party dreamers acknowledge the near absolute impossibility of any candidate other than a Republican or a Democrat winning an outright majority of Electoral votes. What these independent activists hope to achieve is carrying just enough states to deny either of their rivals the 270 Electors needed for victory and to force the decision into the House of Representatives (as described in the Twelfth Amendment to the Constitution). At that point, the Third Party advocates argue that surging public demand for a fresh start in Washington, evidenced by a strong showing in the popular vote, could force the members of the House to pick their unencumbered candidate over the tired, hyper-partisan alternatives.
This foolish fantasy ignores an obvious but inconvenient truth: every one of the members of the House (yes, 435 of 435) who’ll make this decision was elected as either a Republican or Democrat and will feel the most extreme reluctance (intensified by massive partisan pressure) to abandon his party when needed most. Oddly enough, the House doesn’t even boast the two nominal Independents currently serving in the Senate (Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, both of whom have always caucused with the Democrats).
Moreover, if the final presidential decision actually went to the House (an outcome last achieved in 1824, when John Quincy Adams won a controversial victory over Andrew Jackson, William H. Crawford and Henry Clay) the structure of the decision process clearly favors one party: the Republicans. For one thing, the District of Columbia (which provides three automatic electoral votes for the Democrats every four years) plays no role in presidential balloting if it goes to the House. What’s more, each state gets only a single vote (determined by a majority of that state’s Congressional Delegation) so that the support of Wyoming’s one House member counts just as much in the final decision-making as the support of all 53 members from California. Under any vaguely plausible scenario, the GOP will continue to control Congressional delegations in at least 28 of the 50 states and would promptly choose the Republican nominee as the next president.
Despite a likely shutout in the Electoral College (and certain irrelevancy if the choice went to the House), a minor party candidacy could influence the outcome in hotly contested states in a close election. If Ron Paul ran as the Libertarian nominee, for instance, he could certainly take votes away from the GOP candidate and tilt the election in Obama's direction -- just as Ralph Nader took liberal votes from Al Gore in 2000 and swung the election in Florida (and with it the Electoral College) to Bush. But damaging the candidate who comes closest to sharing your own values and positions is very different from saying you can move the election in the ideological direction your supporters purportedly prefer --let alone claiming a real-world chance to carry enough states to secure the electoral votes to win the presidency.
While expressing the frustrations of many patriotic Americans who feel deeply disgusted at the current state of our partisan gridlock, honest advocates for a fresh insurgent party ought to acknowledge that they can’t possibly advance their agenda without first abolishing the Electoral College. That reform would require a Constitutional Amendment--with a two thirds vote from the Democrats and Republicans in both the House and the Senate, and then majority votes in at least 75 of 99 state legislative houses, where Democrats and Republicans also wield exclusive control. In other words, there’s no chance whatever to alter our current Constitutional arrangements by 2012, and only the remotest possibility of changing the time-honored system in the foreseeable future.
Moreover, if the purpose of a new party is to break the hyper-polarized logjam in Washington is it really a good idea to promote further divisions with new political organizations? The experience of multi-party Parliamentary democracies (like Israel, Italy, or Canada for instance) strongly suggests that competition between three or more major factions doesn’t necessarily produce more unity and cooperation than ongoing competition between just two.
The worst possible outcome for new Third Party initiatives would be to generate enough support to worsen, not cure, the dysfunctional and divisive operation of our federal government. The best conceivable outcome (and by far the most likely result) would be another irrelevant and distracting race that abused the faith of dedicated followers and contributors in one more complete, pathetic waste of time.
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