Cheat the Prophet

This is more than a typical political "gotcha." Obama supported measures to block the surge, either by denying funding or by imposing constraints that would have hobbled its implementation. And the results that would have flowed from a congressionally mandated failure in Iraq do not require much prophetic ability to imagine. A genocidal civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. The dominance of Iran within Iraq. The collapse of American credibility in the region. The choice of Sunni powers to either make their deal with Iran or seek nuclear weapons themselves. The gleeful celebration of al-Qaeda. The impossibility of pursuing our goals in Afghanistan and Pakistan since our allies would justly doubt our will.

Yet little blame has attached to Obama for these likely outcomes, for several reasons. Many regard Obama's judgment in opposing the Iraq War initially as sufficiently sound to cover later lapses. Obama's steady manner in the current economic crisis undermines charges of recklessness -- though his Iraq views have sometimes been reckless.

But the main reason Obama has escaped the political consequences of his poor judgment on the surge has been the success of the surge itself, which has taken the issue almost entirely off the table. In early December 2006, 44 percent of Americans said that Iraq was the most important problem faced by the president and Congress. This week, 7 percent said Iraq was the most important issue in their choice for president. A relatively peaceful Iraq is not an issue -- even for a candidate who might have thrust it into genocide.

So Obama is left with a pleasing paradox: The successes of a strategy he opposed may have paved his way to the presidency.

And McCain is left with a poignant comfort. He once said he would rather lose an election than lose a war. He may lose an election, in part, because he helped win a war.