The Man Who Stayed

Pakistan has decades of ties to the Taliban, which has often been its proxy in Afghanistan. And the traditional obsession of the Pakistani army has been India to its east, not the disorder of its western tribal regions. But as terrorist violence has invaded more settled parts of Pakistan, Petraeus sees a major shift. "The big idea emerging here is that the most important existential threat to the country is in the west, not the east." Though he does not foresee a role for "Americans on the ground," he argues that the "Pakistanis are determined to fight their enemies themselves. ... Not to carry out an American war on terror, but their own war against the extremists that have carried out acts of indiscriminate violence against Pakistanis."

Petraeus recognizes that there is a gap between long-term Pakistani military reform and the emergence of urgent threats to American troops and interests from the tribal regions. This gap, as recent events have shown, will occasionally be filled by American military strikes within Pakistan.

All these efforts are complicated by a tribal situation in Pakistan that may be more difficult than in Iraq. The trademark decapitations of al-Qaeda occupation can alienate traditional tribal leaders -- or intimidate and destroy them. Petraeus sees both effects along the Pakistani frontier, describing a tribal system that is damaged, but still strong enough to turn against the radicals. It seems like a thin strand holding up a weighty hope. But there is little alternative.

Petraeus emphasizes American advantages in this proxy counterinsurgency campaign, particularly the pride and effectiveness of the Pakistani military. But one of the largest advantages may be Petraeus himself. Pakistanis are deeply suspicious of American staying power in a tough fight. They tend to see our country through the prism of Somalia -- and a premature Iraqi retreat would have confirmed that image beyond question.

Petraeus may be uniquely capable of convincing our friends in the region of America's long-term commitment, precisely because he didn't leave Iraq to its fate -- because he is the man who stayed.