Michael Barone

Demography is destiny. The framers of the Constitution recognized this when they mandated for the first time in history that a census be conducted at regular intervals, and that representation in the lower house of Congress be based on its results. The growth that the Census Bureau has reported over the ensuing two centuries has been unique among nations: from 3.9 million in 1790, mostly clustered along the Atlantic coastline, to 50 million in 1880, 100 million in 1915, 200 million in 1967 and now 300 million in October 2006.

As George Washington expected, the United States has expanded across the continent, and even beyond. That expansion is a story with several different chapters, each one largely unexpected, and one still unfolding today. The first chapter, from 1790 to around 1840, is a story of fertility, of unparalleled natural increase. During this period, the average American woman gave birth to seven children. Not all survived, of course, but very many did.

Americans probably enjoyed the best nutrition in the world: While European peasants subsisted mainly on bread, American farmers had a plentiful supply of meat. Although there was little immigration -- never more than 79,000 a year, and as little as 6,000 -- our population increased by 28 percent to 31 percent per decade, probably the highest rate in history.

Then, in the 1840s, another chapter begins, a story of mass immigration. The potato famine in Ireland and the failed revolutions of 1848 in Germany resulted in a vast flow of immigrants across the Atlantic to the United States. In the years from 1847 to 1857, as Americans moved west and the nation grappled with the issue of slavery, 3.3 million immigrants arrived on our shores -- 6 percent of the pre-existing population.

The Civil War reduced the flow of immigration and cost the lives of 600,000 Americans in a nation of 31 million (a death rate that would translate to the loss of nearly 6 million today). The end of the war produced a third chapter, which lasted into the 1920s. Immigration continued and accelerated -- 2.7 million in the 1870s, 5.2 million in the 1880s, 3.7 million in the 1890s, 13.4 million from 1900 to 1914.

Starting around 1890, immigrants were increasingly people considered to be of a different race from most Americans -- Italians, Jews, Poles and other Eastern Europeans -- and they moved almost exclusively to big cities in the North. At the same time, even though wages were much higher in the North than the South, only a few Southerners -- black or white -- moved to the North.


Michael Barone

Michael Barone, senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner (www.washingtonexaminer.com), is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. COPYRIGHT 2011 THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER. DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM