The Kerry camp is also trying to change perceptions by flashing the anti-Bush anger that it was so careful to conceal at the Democratic convention. The Democratic National Committee has been running ads questioning Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard, even using footage from Dan Rather's "60 Minutes II" story that relied on what are almost universally regarded as forged documents (Rather concedes they're questionable). The Kerry campaign is running ads attacking Halliburton and charging that Dick Cheney has been profiting from the company's work in Iraq. These will undoubtedly make Michael Moore Democrats happy. But will they convince voters in the middle that Bush and Cheney are dishonest?

 September state polls are suggesting that the battleground may be changing. States both sides counted as battleground based on the 2000 returns -- Arizona, Missouri -- seem safe for Bush, while states solidly for Al Gore may now be in play. Polls show Bush narrowly behind or, in one case, ahead in New Jersey and narrowly behind in New York and Illinois -- all states Gore carried by double digits. The Kerry campaign says, plausibly, that it's skeptical about those results and vows, wisely in my view, that it won't spend money in those states in any case. But these results could be evidence that suburban women this year are more interested in safety from terrorism than in choice on abortion. Note that Laura Bush last week made one appearance in New Jersey and another in a Pennsylvania town just across the river.

The odds are still against a smooth flight path for the Bush campaign. There will be presidential and vice presidential debates; there will probably be bad daily cycles for both sides; Old Media remains hostile to Bush, and despite Rather's astonishing performance, is always quick to run stories that might hurt him. Events could move a decisive number of voters away from Bush and toward Kerry. But the contrast between the two campaigns is apparent.

 The Bush campaign is executing with confidence and verve a game plan it set out long ago. The Kerry campaign has been regrouping and lurching from one emphasis to another. It is proof of the old political saying: The campaign always reflects the candidate.