Matt Towery

But Republicans generally have a crop of candidates in battleground states that are unlikely to scare away independent voters.

A good example can be found in what is still considered the swing state of Georgia. Several potentially strong GOP candidates were eliminated in that state's first round of primary voting. But so too were the candidates who Democrats yearned to face. They hoped for flawed nominees with compromising past statements, or with a history of legislative votes that might negatively affect a substantial number of independent voters. But after their late July runoff, Georgia Republicans will have gained as their party's senatorial nominee either Congressman Jack Kingston or business leader David Perdue. Either will likely become the favorite to defeat Democrat Michelle Nunn in November.

Meanwhile President Obama is becoming a heavier and heavier weight on each of the Democrats in competitive states up for grabs. His job approval rating averages about 41 percent, and there's plenty of reason to believe it will drop further. The IRS email scandal won't go away, nor will the crisis at VA hospitals. And the horrific ratings the president is receiving from the public over his hands-off approach to Iraq, plus the obvious loss of U.S. prestige abroad, are deepening into a polling disaster for all Democrats by November.

Still, here is a warning for the victorious GOP nominees who will be trying to take control of the Senate this year: Don't believe that because you won some tight primary contests that you can go back to "business as usual." Conservatives weren't enthused by Mitt Romney, and many stayed home on Election Day in 2012. Even if you don't consider yourself to be one of the "tea party," you darn well better consider yourself a "patriot." Run conservative, vote conservative, be conservative or risk losing what appears to be within your grasp.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
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