Matt Towery

One of those wins might be in Michigan, where polling shows a potentially tight battle. It is an open seat with no incumbent and, in the year of the female voter, it will have a woman as the GOP nominee. But Michigan seems more likely to go with the Democrat in November. That's because President Obama carried it by a 10-point margin in 2012 and its Democratic turnout machine is still alive and well.

But applying that same logic to Alaska, which went for Mitt Romney by double digits, it would seem reasonable to argue that the Democratic incumbent Mark Begich, who by most accounts is hanging on by the seat of his pants, could easily lose his first reelection bid. Particularly if Alaska Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell wins the GOP nomination.

Regardless, the Republican's most logical path to a majority in the Senate is to carry all four tossup southern states. That effort is made much easier by the increased unpopularity of Obamacare and President Obama in all four states. And these are four states where the Democrats' "income inequality" message isn't likely to inspire voters. The South has suffered from poverty and income inequality forever, and every politician since Reconstruction has promised to improve the situation. All have failed, including Obama. Neither refighting the War on Poverty nor igniting a war on women will likely decide the southern contests.

If Republicans want to win these four seats, they must make each Senate race a referendum on both the president and his health care initiative. If they do this and never let up, they can take the Senate by taking the South.

And if the GOP can't turn Mitch McConnell into the temporary political version of a "Happy Meal," they can always serve up some "Baked Alaska" for a taste of sweet victory.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery