As the Affordable Care Act continues to draw more critics, it also, through its implementation, is leaving more and more Americans uncertain as to the availability and cost of their health care in years to come. Whether their fear will be reflected in decreased consumer confidence, either in the last few months of this year or perhaps early into 2014, remains to be seen.
But, as we all know from past bubbles that have burst, "leading economic indicators" often aren't so leading. That means that at some point early into the new year, the Fed may feel that the economy is stronger than it truly is and begin the reduction in bond buybacks that seems to have Wall Street gurus quaking in their boots.
About that same time, Congress will start considering the debt ceiling, which by most calculations must be addressed in real terms by March or April. Emboldened GOP conservative members of the House and Senate believe that Obamacare will be so unpopular by then that they will be capable of holding the raising of the debt ceiling hostage as a bargaining chip to kill off Obamacare. They might be right.
But by around March it is possible that the wizards of Wall Street will suddenly feel a squeeze from the Fed. That could come just as they suddenly realize that conservatives might just have the juice and the courage to call the bluff of President Obama and the endless parade of bankers and CEOs he always frightens into joining him, who will be demanding that, once again, the nation should take on more debt.
Of course the elite media and pundits will expect the Republicans to back down for fear of dire economic consequences. What many of those Republicans will know is that, but that time, the party for the White House and Wall Street may well already be coming to an end both politically and financially.
I wouldn't want to be President Obama or a Democrat after that ... and I probably wouldn't want to be heavily invested in Wall Street's house of cards, either.
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