Matt Towery

I was campaign chair for Newt Gingrich in 1994, when the Republicans won control of the U.S. House. Many today don't recall that the '94 victory was the pot boiling over only after simmering and simmering somewhat beneath the surface for a long while. It wasn't until the last week before the election -- maybe even the last 72 hours -- that it became clear the Democrats would finally lose the House.

There has been a euphoric optimism in Republican and conservative circles over the past month. Polls have indicated that President Obama's approval ratings are dismal. Other "generic" polls show that Americans prefer Republicans in general over Democrats, and by margins not seen in ages.

But in the past few days, I've started to wonder. Consider all those Republican voters, combined with all the independent voters who plan to vote Republican this year to register their discontent with Obama and congressional Democrats. Are they starting to believe that Republican victories are guaranteed?

Often when I poll a political race, the data will show one candidate with a substantial lead over their opponent. Usually the trailing candidate and their backers will savagely attack the accuracy of the poll. What they often fail to realize is that being shown to be behind can be a gift. If the race looks over before Election Day, the motivation of the supporters for the frontrunner can dissipate. And this year the entire political landscape rests on voter intensity.

Based on my research, my guess is that Republican and Republican-leaning independents in November will indeed turn out with more intensity than Democrats and their sympathizers. But Republicans should be particularly wary of a developing media theme in the weeks and even final days or hours before the election on Nov. 2.

Legendary journalist Bob Woodward noted in a recent interview that the president is being all but overwhelmed nearly every day by the number of terrorism threats against American interests around the world.

And we all are hearing about publicized threats of attacks on Europe -- that Osama bin Laden may be more actively in control of al-Qaida than we have lately believed, and even that American tourists abroad are being asked to make their presence known to U.S. or local authorities in these countries.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery