Many of Atlanta's problems simply come with being a big city. Any big city. Incumbent Mayor Shirley Franklin has witnessed municipal headaches as grievous as any mayor since Jackson has. And she ought to know -- she has been an administrative force in Atlanta mayoral offices starting with her work under Jackson, and then under the popular Mayor Andrew Young.
Those who view Tuesday's election results as a judgment on Franklin are wrong. It likely will be the result of a plurality of blacks who figure there's little harm in trying something new. After all, many of these voters have been dealing with crime, the high cost of an inner-city lifestyle and cutbacks in city services.
In this instance, "new" could mean Norwood. She's a two-term city councilwoman, but isn't seen as being a cog in a city political machine.
So why is this election a possible harbinger of things to come across the nation?
First, blacks and young voters were two demographic groups that helped to coronate President Obama in 2008. But now they both appear to lack political energy or interest. In Atlanta, that's a bit odd when one considers that a Norwood win would likely mean the end of decades of relationships that have benefited the African-American and more youth-oriented communities of the city.
Second, the Atlanta mayoral battle illustrates that change -- be it change from a generation ago or from recent times -- eventually yields to a new brand of change. In this case, Atlanta voters look to be tired of a perceived combination of crime, congestion and a city government stuck in neutral gear.
Nothing in politics remains the same. The lasting national Republican majority that was a dream of some in the GOP just a few years ago has melted away. Now we have Democratically inspired "change we can believe in" in Washington. According to many in media, it may last for decades.
But if what my polling numbers tell me are true, either this Tuesday or three weeks from now, voters in Atlanta will prove again that those in the political world can count only on the unexpected.