It has been my contention for the past decade that when it comes
to politics, as Florida goes, so goes the nation.
Think about the 2008 presidential election. First, following the
CNN-YouTube debate, the last major Republican debate to be held before the
Iowa caucus, our firm polled Floridians for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.
We asked respondents who won the debate. A then-unknown candidate was the
clear winner, and the boost he received in Florida gave Mike Huckabee a win
in Iowa just over a month later.
The tipping point in the Republican presidential contest was
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's endorsement of John McCain in that state's GOP
primary. Soon afterward, McCain won an upset victory in New Hampshire. It
propelled him to the nomination.
Then in November 2008, a large, disenchanted contingent of
independent voters, who in prior years had tilted Republican, switched sides
and put Florida in the Barack Obama column.
This past year our polling firm, InsiderAdvantage, was named one
of the three most accurate national pollsters for that 2008 race. That
distinction came to us from the polling guru that Time magazine named one of
the 100 Most Influential People in the world. So now the heat is on us to
get 2012 right, as well.
That's why I'm focused on an apparently obscure state Senate
special election race in a region dominated by greater Jacksonville. By
coincidence, this nationally syndicated column is based out of that city's
newspaper, the Florida Times-Union. The election is to replace a
distinguished senator who died a few weeks back.
How could this comparatively small election be so important?
Because it summarizes every aspect of what will become a national battle for
the future direction of the Republican Party.
Let me set the stage. No Democrats are in the race, so the
winner of the Sept. 15 Republican primary will become senator. Among the
major GOP candidates running is a longtime party establishment leader,
former state speaker of the House John Thrasher. He enjoys the support of
many elected officials, as well as that of former Gov. Jeb Bush. Thrasher
was a tight ally of Bush, and of Bush's family and the Bush political
network.
The other major player in the race is businessman Dan Quiggle.
He's a political upstart who has virtually no ties to the Republican
heavyweights. Quiggle's chief qualification is that he once worked for
Ronald Reagan once Reagan had left the White House. Quiggle is running on a
conservative activist platform that seems to have propelled him into a
dogfight with Thrasher. Quiggle is a new face, and he heads up the Florida
chapter of Americans for Prosperity, a national group devoted to fighting
taxes and big government.
Clearly something is going on in Florida. This is a tug-of-war
that will be repeated in Republican primaries now through the 2012
presidential race.
Team Quiggle has released polling numbers that show him leading
the race by nearly 9 percent.
But hold on. Our InsiderAdvantage poll of the race, conducted
this week, shows things much tighter. Quiggle holds a one-point lead. That's
well within the survey's margin of error. So for now, voters are evenly
split.
So, you might say, this is just another close race between two
Republicans, right? Absolutely wrong. These guys might as well be surrogates
for the big dogs who will be running to determine the path the GOP takes in
the future on a national stage.
Thrasher has all sorts of experience as a party leader, a former
top legislator and a very successful lobbyist. He is older than Quiggle, but
has a distinguished and attractive appearance. He represents the
conservative but pragmatic side of the GOP that was exhibited by both
President Bush 41 and President George W. Bush. Thrasher won't likely rock
any boats, but he will continue to carry the GOP baton.
Quiggle has a slightly more youthful look. He seems to be
relying heavily on his avid involvement in recent conservative "tea parties"
and on his support of concepts related to tax-and-spend government. Among
those most supportive of Quiggle are those who identify themselves as
"conservatives." Many of them support the "Fair Tax" advocated by many
conservative talk show hosts, such as Neal Boortz and Sean Hannity.
The net significance of this seemingly modest political
square-off -- it might draw 15,000 voters -- is that it likely will tell us
if the GOP establishment that has controlled the party in recent years will
stand, or whether Republican voters might buck their own system, roll the
dice and test the unknown.
Unlike pollsters who produce polls to please their clients, ours
are conducted to meet very rigorous media standards. And our poll says,
"Watch this race." It's anyone's ballgame and may indicate bigger, future
events for the Republican standard.