While former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson has simply formed an exploratory campaign committee, the mere expectation that he will enter the field of GOP presidential candidates has vaulted him into second place in the polls focused on those Republican contenders.
A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion national survey is the first one taken after Thompson made his move toward a probable, eventual announcement that he's running. It showed Rudy Giuliani still leading at 28 percent, but Thompson had surged into second place with 19 percent, followed by John McCain and Mitt Romney with 17 percent each.
The poll surveyed 1000 likely voters in Republican primaries or caucuses across the nation. It was conducted May 31-June 1, just days after Thompson's exploratory committee was announced. The poll has been weighted for age, race, gender and geographic population distribution.
A week later, internal polling conducted for the organization that was involved in drafting Fred Thompson also showed him in second place.
Now the critical question is whether Fred Thompson can take the political capital he's already gained by simply saying he's ready to run, and turn it into an overtaking of Giuliani and the other contenders in a Republican slugfest.
The Thompson campaign is a textbook example of how political rumor can become political reality. Few candidates ever enjoy the opportunity of truly being "drafted" into a presidential campaign.
In April and May, many Republican insiders who consider themselves conservative, but not the wacky right, burned up telephone lines in search of an alternative to what many view as an uninspired group of candidates. When Thompson's name emerged, those close to him seized the moment.
Former U.S. Senator and Ambassador Mack Mattingly of Georgia was one of them. He was an early architect of the "draft Fred" movement.
For purposes of full disclosure, I served as Mattingly's first speechwriter, and he's served on the boards of several companies that I've either owned or for which I've sat as a board member alongside him.
The major value of this longtime relationship is not some inside information about Thompson, but instead a solid understanding of the kind of Republican who could be drawn to a Thompson campaign.
Early Thompson supporters like Mattingly are Reagan Republicans to the core. They don't talk about reducing the cost of government; they obsess about it. They're skeptical of the influence of special-interest groups, and of government intervention in our lives. These are not "neocons," but rather the last lions of the Reagan era. They're soft-spoken, but passionate.