Hillary Clinton's Hidden Formula For Success

Also, Clinton only narrowly trails the biracial Obama among African-Americans here. She can thank the "Bill Factor." Lately, she's been making noise about making good, practical political use of "The First Gentleman" if she's elected. That plays well with blacks, who generally loved President Clinton, even if as many can't quite picture Hillary in the same role.

And don't forget Senator Clinton's moderate position on the Iraq war -- or so say many Democrats. This has caused political heartburn among the rabidly faithful, but much less so in Southern and Midwestern states. Democrats in most of them don't like the war, either, but might cut Clinton slack for having voted for the war, given the available information at the time.

Finally, consider "those men." From Edwards to Richardson and in between, male Democratic presidential hopefuls all win just enough support among Democratic voters to prevent any one of them from accumulating enough to seriously challenge Clinton.

For Republicans demoralized by this, there may still be some good news. In our InsiderAdvantage survey of Alabama GOP voters, former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson trailed former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by only 21 percent to 19 percent, a statistical tie within the four-point margin of error. This, despite the fact that Giuliani has announced his candidacy and Thompson has not.

These Alabamians may be on to something. Thompson -- maybe even Thompson alone -- could serve as the true threat to an otherwise likely Democratic victory in November 2008.