Matt Towery

It's also important to note that New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson isn't really running for president. Take my word. He is running for vice president. He will score huge points once the public gets to know him -- and after the huge Puerto Rican voting bloc in Florida makes him appear highly competitive.

On the Republican side, I watched with horror as MSNBC covered John McCain's announcement that he is seeking the presidency. The MSNBC reporter made the statement that McCain is the establishment candidate for the GOP. How incredibly naive.

Anyone who knows the GOP knows that McCain is the ultimate outsider. He is having trouble getting significant numbers of volunteers in major states, and as I have mentioned before, he is completely despised by most of his party's U.S. senators. That does not mean McCain cannot win; only that he has to dig himself out of a huge hole of erratic policy views. Harping about bombing Iran just doesn't look very presidential.

I will say it one more time and then quit. Mitt Romney is the establishment candidate. He has the entire Bush organization behind him, and while he may not win, he will have more money and more support than virtually any other candidate. What is amazing is that both former Senator Fred Thompson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continue to poll very competitively in virtually every state we have looked at.

There are two ways that a Thompson or Gingrich entry into the race could go. It could create a Ronald Reagan effect. (Reagan officially entered the presidential race comparatively late, just months before the Iowa caucuses.) Or they could become targets of attack and no longer appear attractive. That is something we will have to wait and see should one of the two enter the race. If only one of them does, it's likely he would be near the top for support in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

For both the Republicans and Democrats, winning the presidency is state-by-state surgery, not a national bloodletting.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery