Matt Towery

Don't get me wrong. All weekend I was rooting for Congress to do what it had to do in order to get Terri Schiavo back on her feeding tube.

 I've had strong reservations about her husband's claim that she once told him never to sustain her life by these devices. I'm particularly uneasy with his claim given that he has spent the last 10 years living with another woman and fathering two children by her.

 But my personal beliefs have little to do with the sentiments of the American people. And therein floats the tip of an iceberg that could cast a dark shadow on the horizon of future Republican political fortunes.

 Few recall that in the 1992 presidential primary, then-President George H.W. Bush was drifting into the camps of the vocal pro-life and so-called Christian Coalition movements. This was partly a function of his eight years as vice president to Ronald Reagan. But it was also a result of having to face Pat Robertson in the Republican primaries of 1988, and then a surprisingly strong Pat Buchanan in 1992.

 After Bush's defeat in '92, otherwise strong conservative Republicans -- many of whom I won't name for their own protection! -- started drifting away from the pro-life movement. Media interviews at the time showed that many of these one-time social-conservative candidates and elected officials were starting to temper their social issues positions. Many were saying off the record that the GOP should stick to a message of fiscal and governmental restraint, and lessen its efforts to steer the nation's social conscience.

 This was an overreaction. It was caused partly by the failure of many Republicans to recognize that President Bush's defeat was as much because of third-party candidate Ross Perot as it was because any "religious right" voter base in rebellion.

 Now in 2005, the pundits for both the Republican and Democratic sides have come to believe that activist government interventions on behalf of anything appealing to this voting bloc are politically significant.

 All of this is good and well except for one thing. The public mood is quixotic. Can anyone truly argue that public sentiment and philosophy has changed so much in recent years so as to now be far away from where it was in 1998, when former President Bill Clinton's approval rating topped out at 65 percent at the height of the impeachment scandal? Has America really reversed course so much since then that it now fully embraces all doctrines of social conservatives?

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery