With just two weeks to go, President Bush appears to have shed himself of the post-debate blues and again gained momentum in this seesaw contest for the White House. And as always seems to be the case over the last few years, Florida perhaps best measures the latest swing in national sentiment; a swing that might be the final one.
Immediately following the final presidential debate last week in Arizona, our InsiderAdvantage tracking poll in Florida showed John Kerry inching ahead of Bush.
But that lead vanished by last weekend, following a Bush campaign swing through some parts of South Florida that many pundits and analysts have believed are solidly Democratic. One was Broward County, home to fervent Democrats and much controversy following the 2000 election. But it's also home to hundreds of thousands of registered Republicans. Their willingness to turn out and cast ballots could conceivably decide the whole national election.
Bush's latest resurgence can't be attributed wholly to his barnstorming in South Florida, or anywhere else. Most polls had been showing Kerry ahead or tied with Bush immediately following the third debate. Then came the delayed -- and media-boosted -- reaction by most Americans against Kerry's reference to Vice President Dick Cheney's gay daughter. The discussion had been a back-and-forth on gay marriage, but Kerry's inserting the vice president's family into the exchange appeared gratuitous. Critically, it opened up an opportunity for the Republican ticket to cry foul.
The Kerry blunder is magnified by the late hour of the campaign, and by the fact that he and his campaign team keep taking the GOP bait by continuing to comment on the matter.
This is the point in political races at which many candidates are inclined to look for the polls to validate their wishes, rather than letting them guide strategy. Let's look at the variables that might still force the Republicans to see Kerry as a potentially mortal foe.
First, polls. The companies polling the race inevitably conduct their polls differently. Some query registered voters, others "likely voters" within the list of registered voters. Just as inevitably, these different methodologies render different results.
Of late, the stakes and the tensions in the Bush-Kerry race have been so high that it seems a puff of wind can suddenly yield dramatically reversed results from the same pollsters' efforts of just days before.