Matt Towery

With policies like those Kerry is pushing, it's no wonder the Democrats haven't won the White House with a non-Southern nominee since John Kennedy. And proposing to roll back tax cuts is one sure-fire way to guarantee these voters stay with Bush. Kerry -- or whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- must understand that most moderate swing voters don't buy the rhetoric that "tax cuts are for the wealthy." Most of them got something out of the Bush tax cuts. And with Kerry being one of those "rich people" himself, he should drop the traditional Democratic "class warfare" mantra -- or potentially lose in November.

Kerry also will have to defend his rampant voting absenteeism in the Senate. Congressional Quarterly found that when it came to voting showdowns with the White House last year, Kerry showed up to vote only 28 percent of the time.

It seems a truism that just when a candidate is riding high, it soon becomes clear they have risen too swiftly. That was the case this year when the Bush White House drifted far from its base by proposing a domestic agenda of doing nothing and spending everything.

Fortunately, there are signs that the sleeping giant of the Bush White House might be gaining a renewed sense of humility and realism -- just in time to reverse an otherwise likely disaster in November.

As for Kerry, it remains to be seen whether he will drop his regal "Senate Speak" style and moderate his Massachusetts liberal rhetoric in time to convert his current momentum into a sustainable base of electoral support.

Matt Towery

Matt Towery is a pollster, attorney, businessman and former elected official. He served as campaign strategist for Congressional, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns. His latest book is Newsvesting: Use News and Opinion to Grow Your Personal Wealth. Follow him on Twitter @MattTowery