On the economy, newsrooms across the nation report largely on the number of jobs lost in the past three years. That won't change. No matter how high the stock market climbs or consumer optimism grows, the economic measuring stick the average reader or viewer of mass media will be subjected to over the coming year will be the number of unemployed workers. And as we have noted before in this column space, the export of service-sector jobs to Asia and other foreign lands will be drummed up by Dean and many in the media as a crack in America's economic armor.
The story of Iraq, too, will be framed by those reporting it. When the cover of Newsweek magazine suggests the war has become "Bush's $87 Billion Mess" -- as if Saddam Hussein's genocidal mania had nothing to do with it -- it is plain enough the war will dog the president through next November and probably beyond. Less likely to make headlines will be stories like the one that aired last weekend on MSNBC-TV. It showed a large group of young Iraqis using broken English to unanimously endorse Bush over Hussein.
By November 2004, political and economic reality may win out for the president. The economy likely will be at its strongest in several years. And Bush's forceful and sustained response to Sept. 11 has possibly discouraged other rogue nations and terrorist groups from pursuing their murderous ways -- or at least tied them down far from U.S. shores.
But in politics, reality and perception don't always overlap exactly. Dean or another Democratic nominee might be able to parlay economic and foreign policy discontent into enough support to make it a close election next year. My own best guess is that Bush will win in a bitter and potentially tighter-than-expected race. And that he will return to office with the respect, if not always the gratitude, of the American people.