Here's Why Obama Will Lose Wisconsin

Matt Batzel

11/3/2012 12:01:00 AM - Matt Batzel

President Obama avoided Wisconsin like the plague during the Walker recall campaign season because he didn't want to be associated with the liberals’ losing effort which came up 7 points short. Up until today, Obama has only visited Wisconsin twice in the past eight months (his last visit before the June 5 recall election was February 15 to Masterlock).

This morning, Obama visited Green Bay and he has two more plans to visit Wisconsin before November 6. So that's 2 visits in 8 months, then 3 last minute visits in the campaigns' final 5 days. These are the signs of a President who senses he is on the ropes and must win Wisconsin in order to be re-elected.

Polling has been all over the place for the Presidential race in Wisconsin. Rasmussen Reports has showed it tied in their two latest Wisconsin polls, but Marquette Law Poll has jumped all over the place, from Obama leading by 11 in late September, to only 1 point in the middle of October, to now leading by 8 points. As Wisconsin conservative talk show radio host Charlie Sykes pointed out, this wild movement in polling suggests Marquette Law Poll isn't on the money this time. NBC News/Marist/Wall St. Journal's latest poll has Romney cutting Obama's prior edge in half (it was 6 points 3 weeks ago) and now is only 3 points (within the margin of error). This poll had a +5 D sample. So if the electorate is merely +1 D, Obama is in real trouble.

In Obama's 2008 14-point Wisconsin win, exit polls showed a partisan ID split of +6 D: Dem 39%, GOP 33%, IND 29%. In the 2010 fall election, where Gov. Scott Walker was elected by 6 points, exit polls showed a partisan ID split of only +1 D: Dem 37%, GOP 36%, IND 27%. The June 5, 2012 Recall election then had a partisan split of +1 GOP: Dem 34%, GOP 35%, IND 31%.

One of the miscalculations of the Left's recall efforts was what it would do to conservatives. They came out of the woodwork to help re-elect Gov. Scott Walker and the recall re-invigorated the Tea Party. But it also gave conservatives an important test run of their ground game.

As a ground-game organizer for American Majority Action, I can attest that having just built up a significant GOTV operation for the June 5 recall election has made it much easier to build it up even bigger before November 6. Not only that, but the recall election allowed conservatives the chance to use cutting edge canvassing technologies, such as Political Gravity, which American Majority Action and other conservatives groups use. We are now more efficiently reaching voters and able to target the swing voters that could tip the balance in this election.

American Majority Action has nearly knocked on 85,000 doors in Wisconsin in the past several weeks and will eclipse 100,000 by November 6. Had the recall election not happened, I doubt we would have been able to as easily and efficiently knock on this many doors.

When you factor the conservative ground game into the polling data in Wisconsin, you see why Obama is frantically coming to Wisconsin so much in the final 5 days of the campaign. This is a Presidency that is on the ropes and he is afraid Wisconsin could land the knockout blow.