In Obama's 2008 14-point Wisconsin win, exit polls showed a partisan ID split of +6 D: Dem 39%, GOP 33%, IND 29%. In the 2010 fall election, where Gov. Scott Walker was elected by 6 points, exit polls showed a partisan ID split of only +1 D: Dem 37%, GOP 36%, IND 27%. The June 5, 2012 Recall election then had a partisan split of +1 GOP: Dem 34%, GOP 35%, IND 31%.
One of the miscalculations of the Left's recall efforts was what it would do to conservatives. They came out of the woodwork to help re-elect Gov. Scott Walker and the recall re-invigorated the Tea Party. But it also gave conservatives an important test run of their ground game.
As a ground-game organizer for American Majority Action, I can attest that having just built up a significant GOTV operation for the June 5 recall election has made it much easier to build it up even bigger before November 6. Not only that, but the recall election allowed conservatives the chance to use cutting edge canvassing technologies, such as Political Gravity, which American Majority Action and other conservatives groups use. We are now more efficiently reaching voters and able to target the swing voters that could tip the balance in this election.
American Majority Action has nearly knocked on 85,000 doors in Wisconsin in the past several weeks and will eclipse 100,000 by November 6. Had the recall election not happened, I doubt we would have been able to as easily and efficiently knock on this many doors.
When you factor the conservative ground game into the polling data in Wisconsin, you see why Obama is frantically coming to Wisconsin so much in the final 5 days of the campaign. This is a Presidency that is on the ropes and he is afraid Wisconsin could land the knockout blow.