TAIPEL, Taiwan -- Imagine -- no, don't -- a U.S. election in which the president and vice president, trailing in the polls, are both slightly wounded in an assassination attempt the day before the election. Imagine a leading legislator charging that the "assassination attempt" was actually a desperate ploy by the incumbents to win the election by gaining a sympathy vote. Imagine also the president winning by one-fourth of one percent of the vote, as election officials declare invalid almost 3 percent of all votes. Imagine a nationwide recount.
That all makes for drama even weirder than the U.S. "hanging chad" election of 2000 -- and that's what this island-nation that the United States is pledged to defend now slouches through. The returns on March 20 showed President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party gaining 29,000 more votes (out of 13 million cast) than Lien Chan of the Nationalist Party -- yet referenda that President Chen favored, which would have pushed Taiwan toward a harder line in relation to Communist China, failed.
The current debate could not be more important: Lien favors a conciliatory approach toward mainland China, with a special emphasis on stronger commercial relations, and some say his approach could lead to Taiwan being absorbed into the People's Republic on terms similar to those given Hong Kong. But behind the political tension lie 55 years of troubled history.
Beaten by communist forces during the years after World War II, nationalists retreated to Taiwan -- and ever since then many native Taiwanese have resented the escapees from the mainland, who brought with them leadership talents but also arrogance. President Chen's core support is Taiwanese, while Lien's core vote is Chinese -- "and don't forget it, buster," his tone communicates.
Memorable campaign moments led up to Election Day. Lien kissed the ground to show his love for Taiwan despite his fondness for closer ties to the mainland. Analysts discussed how the burial of ancestors in a dragon-shaped cemetery could affect presidential candidates. One campaign's rally of 1 million supporters was topped by the other side's gathering of 3 million the following weekend.