For years, we had no proof most teen pregnancy prevention programs would work, either. And for years, they mostly did not, until evaluation research revealed the key component of successful programs: You gotta tell the kids it is a bad idea to have a baby while a teen-ager. What works, in general, is responsible adults talking straight with teens. Many will listen and learn.
Critics of President Bush now make similar dreary and reactionary claims about his marriage initiative: There is no evidence that marriage education programs work. Actually, there is considerably more evidence that these programs work than that much of what government does is effective. Many marriage programs over the years have been shown to increase couple satisfaction, and the few that have been evaluated for divorce appear to reduce it.
But in particular there is every reason to think (from the success of teen pregnancy and abstinence education) that educating young people and young couples about the importance of marriage works. People bound and determined not to marry, of course, will not. People whose partners are violent or abusive should not marry -- or live together, either, for that matter.
But if educated adults, government officials, social workers, parents, family, friends and clergy raise marriage as an important issue for couples having babies, yes, they will think about it, and many more will make good marriages.
Why are more teen-agers today virgins? Government programs made a difference directly by educating teens on the value of postponing sex. But they made a difference indirectly as well, encouraging parents and other concerned adults to pass on this important message (once dubbed nostalgic and unrealistic) to teen-agers. And it worked!