Has the choice of John Edwards as John Kerry's running mate re-scrambled the election odds for November?
The Iowa Presidential Winner Takes All market -- a real pay-to-play futures trading system -- is showing a significant bump for Kerry in the wake of his selection of Edwards. The Bush "contract" hovered around 55 cents since its opening on June 1, 2004. But it has taken a slide in the past week, falling from 56 cents to 52 cents since July 4.
The Kerry contract has seen a corresponding jump in price. Hovering around 46 cents since its opening on June 1, it has climbed from 45 cents to 51.2 cents in the past week, with most of the activity taking place after July 4. On balance, the Bush contract now leads by a very narrow 52 cents to 51 cents.
But that may be as good as the bump gets for the John-John King of Torts ticket.
The Zogby poll of 1,008 likely voters from July 6 to July 7 shows Kerry-Edwards with 48 percent and Bush-Cheney with 46 percent. The 2 percentage point margin is within the poll's 3.1 percentage-point margin of error and matches the 2 point spread in an earlier poll taken June 25.
"This is not a big bounce electorate," pollster John Zogby said in a statement. "We are a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened."
An AP-Ipsos poll of 804 registered voters from July 5 to July 7 -- which touches the hours before and after Kerry's July 6 pick of Edwards -- shows Bush favored by 49 percent and Kerry by 45 percent, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 3 percent support. The poll has a 3.5 percentage-point margin of error.
The addition of Sen. John Edwards to the Democratic ticket may be helping in the South and among low-income voters, according to an AP story filed by Ron Fournier. However, it is also worth noting that the AP poll shows Bush gaining ground among suburban women. The incumbent is also improving -- in voters' eyes -- on his handling of foreign policy, the war in Iraq and the economy.
The latest Rasmussen nightly tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters -- conducted entirely after the Edwards announcement -- shows that Sen. John F. Kerry now attracts 47 percent of the vote while President George W. Bush earns 46 percent. This represents a net 2 point swing in Kerry's favor since he named his running mate. Scott Rasmussen notes that this could either be a mini-bounce for Kerry-Edwards or mere statistical noise.