I based my conclusions on two important sets of facts - the results of the 2006 elections, and my own coverage of Obama from his days as a junior member of the Illinois state legislator. But since my only two weeks aged prognostications I am ready to add another series of reasons that will support my original premise as to the Obama ascendancy to the White House.
ONLY HILLARY TO BEAT: Since my original predictions multiple Democratic candidates have announced campaigns for President. Can you name them? Probably not. The only other Democratic personality even getting mentioned has yet to make her formal intentions known - Hillary Clinton. While Hillary has delayed, Obama has surged. Packing out, even standing room only venues in Iowa and New Hampshire Obama is drawing crowds that are defying the observers. Carl Cameron of Fox News reported this week that Obama drew larger crowds in New Hampshire than Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Robert Kennedy. And he is doing so two full years before the actual election. Beyond this Obama is biting into Hillary's money base. Only last week George Soros withdrew his formal support of Hillary, then hosted a fund raising meet-n-greet for Obama that according to the New York Times was another packed house. The bad news for Mrs. Clinton being that the majority of those in attendance had been previous donors, some of them large donors, to the Clinton effort.
OTHER CANDIDATES FALLING FAST: While John Kerry is on a useless tour to the Middle East attempting to apologize to the men and women serving in the military for a "botched joke" he's losing more than face back home. This week one of his longest political advisors and the senior Senator from his state - Ted Kennedy - formally withdrew his pledged support for the Democrats' nominee in 2004. And this is a much more significant development than the media played it out to be. If John Kerry was the "best of the bunch" in 2004 - and he lost miserably, the "also-rans" from that era have to also see the writing on the wall. Effectively eliminating the crowd from '04 we are left with Gore, Clinton, and Obama - none of whom have even declared. If Obama does get in, look for Gore to again decline to run and perhaps this time hang it up for good. To the hard left Obama and Gore look very similar in policy, but Obama looks infinitely more polished, inspiring, smooth, and likeable. Being left with a Hillary/Obama race, Hillary loses support based on her pro-war votes, she is not well liked, and there's no need for her to swoop in as Bill Clinton's memory, when soon Bill will soon be eclipsed by the actual, "first black president."
POP CULTURE ICON: Try to imagine Hillary Clinton doing a Monday Night Football parody of herself. You can't imagine it - because Hillary has no sense of humor. Heck - she won't even look into the eyes of the people she does interviews with. Obama is becoming a household name. Thanks to ESPN he's now firmly engraved on the minds of Americans as a die-hard football fan, and one with a sense of humor.
GULLIBLE EVANGELICALS - AGAIN: If the GOP could swing 15% of the black vote in any national election, they would win in a landslide. The same can be said of Democrats if they corner a similar percentage of evangelicals. In Rick Warren's original display of poor judgment in inviting Obama to his stage and lectern (just don't call it a pulpit) Obama was savvy enough to put himself in a prominent church where he could talk the talk - even if he finds it nearly impossible to walk the walk. Many of Warren's church members were infinitely wiser than he and asked the wisdom of such an unbiblical move. Hundreds of thousands of evangelicals from across the nation politely asked Rick Warren to un-invite Obama - as he shares few if any of the major moral viewpoints of scripture. Warren's reaction has been to attack those who pointed this out (namely me) and as I have no heard from multiple sources he has even begun silencing or excommunicating members of his church who asked the thoughtful questions. Arming Obama with video footage from a Saddleback proceeding exceeded the limits of poor judgment.
ENDLESS NON-CRITICAL MEDIA COVERAGE: This is probably the biggest single thing Obama has going for him - weeks, now turning into months of near blissful coverage of his every move. His all-American good looks, his beautiful wife and daughters, his tall strides, and poetic words all seem to mesmerize the media crews following him. And if you haven't yet seen it - his very first television commercial for president is full of platitudes, music, and production that will resonate with the electorate.
Get ready to say President Barack Hussein Obama, because as much as I wish to be wrong, as these trends continue - I'm sad to say - I won't be.