DIGUSTED CONSERVATIVES - Still reeling from the "ginormous" let down of the Senate under Bill Frist, and the second term Presidency of George W. Bush, normally energized conservatives will look to a field that offers a pro-choice/pro-gay mayor from New York, a Mormon from Massachusetts - who was pro-choice/pro-gay but genuinely seems now not to be - but may have hired illegal aliens, blah blah blah, or John McCain (whose single biggest problem is that he IS John McCain.) Normally eager "tax-cutting, government shrinking, let's defend our nation, pro-life, pro-family" voters, organizations, and leaders will be assaulted with speeches on Romney's health care reform, or Giuliani’s crime initiatives, or John McCain. Whoever emerges, will have not one tenth the oratory skills of Obama and they will come off looking as tired, dry, and stale as day-old toast.
EXHAUSTED MODERATES - They are tired of the stale toast, and will be looking for anything exciting. Mind you, moderates by definition don't truly stand for anything so it doesn't really matter what the candidate stands for. These people voted for Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton all based on one thing, "how does he make me feel?" Realizing this Obama will be a lightening rod on the campaign trail. He will draw record crowds for every appearance he makes (something he's already begun to do.) Money will flow in as a result. Obama's strategy of talking about cooperation, sounding bipartisan, and seeming to curtly rebuke both sides of the aisle will seem to validate his "ability" to "stay above the frey."
ENERGIZED BLACKS - The true voice for alternatives for black voters will not be heard because the voices of great men like Bishop Harry Jackson will not yet have become distinct enough within American media, and because the media, in ignoring the Bishop, will instead return again and again to the altar of Al Sharpton, and Jesse Jackson. Instead, as the media is already doing, there will be near non-stop fawning over the Senator from Illinois as he flashes the big smile. Black voters, who in the majority vote for party and not conviction anyway, will see Obama as the personality that no one since Dr. King has been able to live up too. Obama will be invited to each and every significant black pulpit in America. He will rail with poetry, sing with soul, rhyme when appropriate, and never will the IRS even think of threatening even one of these houses of worship for illegal political action.
GULLIBLE EVANGELICALS - The most reliable base of voters for the Republican Party since the days of President Reagan have been the social conservatives. Church-going born-again Christians who believe in God, the importance of His word, and the significance of living out their faith in an open and compassionate way every single day have been the backbone of the GOP. This past Friday Rick Warren,
through the implied endorsement of allowing Obama to speak at one of the largest evangelical churches in
America gave Obama the opportunity to split evangelicals who will be misled by Obama's words instead of opening their eyes to his actions. In my gentle admonition to Rick Warren over the past couple of weeks I reiterated time and again that it was this opportunity being extended to Obama that would be manipulated by both the press , and Obama himself to pose as a "person of faith." Warren's stubborn action of insisting upon having Obama speak at Saddleback Church in southern California has had that exact effect .
From this point forward should the trend of any of these five areas shift significantly Obama's chances could be compromised. But there are credible reasons to believe that they won't be.
So mark this date down, because it is the first time anyone accurately predicted that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.
And you have no idea how much I hope this prediction does not come true!