Since the late 1960s, Democrats have won only when they follow a particular pattern. Jimmy Carter, a naval officer, narrowly won as a traditional Southerner. Bill Clinton, a left-leaning centrist Southerner, choose another left-leaning centrist Southerner who had served in Vietnam, Al Gore.
Their success has led almost every other Democratic nominee to try the same strategy. Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts, an Army veteran who served in Korea, picked Senator Bentsen of Texas who was a World War II combat veteran.
In 2000, Vice President Gore chose Senator Lieberman, who was a well-established defense hawk. Mr. Lieberman, devoutly Jewish, had condemned Bill Clinton’s personal immorality. Thus he was appealing to many values voters.
In 2004, Senator Kerry, a Vietnam combat veteran, chose John Edwards, a then-moderate Southerner from North Carolina. Each of these tickets was going for millions of voters who were churchgoing and gun-owning, who either had served in the military or were staunchly supportive of our troops.
The two times Democrats deviated from this pattern was in 1984, when Walter Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro of New York, and in 1972, when Senator McGovern ran with Sargent Shriver. Those two elections share the dubious honor of both being 49-1 Republican victories, making them the most lopsided electoral landslides in American history.
Hardly a model for success.
To be fair, there are differences between 2008 and 1972, which (like 1984) a sitting Republican president sought re-election. In addition, Democrats had been out for four years, not eight. And the GOP brand was not as badly tarnished as it is today.
But there are many similarities: an unpopular war, and a record young voter turnout for the Democrats. And the Democrats, like in 1972, have nominated someone who did not win the popular vote in the primary.
There is one difference that does not help Democrats: Neither Mr. Obama nor Mrs. Clinton has served in uniform. Both Messrs. McGovern and Shriver were veterans. And Democrats now face not just a veteran, but a decorated war hero in John McCain.
Yet there is this fascination with the Obama-Clinton dream ticket. Should it happen, it could be an electoral nightmare for the Democrats. And if that ticket, the most liberal in American history, somehow wins, what kind of ultra-left mandate would they claim? At that point, all of Middle America would be taken “through the looking glass.”