John Leo

Some voices in the Arab world are already clear that freedom in one nation will create pressure for reforms in others. This "could be the beginning of transformation in the Arab region," said Tarek al-Absi, a Yemeni university professor -- a transformation, he added, that can't occur without Western help.

Many hope that the first "demonstration effects" will be felt in Iran, where reformers hope for a breakthrough against a repressive regime. Anxiety must be rising among all the dictators in the neighborhood. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak is no Saddam Hussein, but there are pictures of Mubarak all over Egypt, and the destruction of the Saddam statues in Iraq must give him pause. Danielle Pletka, a Middle East expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the area is full of leaders "who have not had the best interests of their people at heart. They should look at the Iraqi people and worry."

Syria, the current target of some frank bullying by the United States, will be under more and more pressure to change. According to one estimate, 29 terrorist groups are sheltered in Damascus. Syria occupies Lebanon and protects the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which has active cells on four continents. Last fall Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., called on the Bush administration to order Syria to shut down the Hezbollah training camps in Lebanon and to destroy the camps if Syria refused. That hasn't happened, partly because Syria is helping in the fight against al-Qaida.

Changing Iraq is the most moderate way to press for reform in the Middle East. Religious extremism and poverty are unlikely to be problems. Iraq is heavily secular and has plenty of oil. But it has severe ethnic and tribal conflict and a revenge culture that could summon the nightmare of Yugoslavia. Before it undertakes any other missions in the area, the United States has to set up a federated political system that is at least benign, if not fully democratic. The Kurds in the north, under protection of the no-fly zone, have evolved a relatively successful political system. A system that funnels oil money to all citizens, as in Chad and the state of Alaska, would ease tensions and demonstrate fairness.

It would also quickly gain the full attention of the Saudis. The whole world is watching this attempt by one nation to transform Iraq's political culture. This is an effort fraught with danger, but we can't allow it to fail. That means we have to stay as long as necessary.


John Leo

John Leo is editor of MindingTheCampus.com and a former contributing editor at U.S. News and World Report.

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