In other words, even if the economy improves by mid-2010 and the media trumpets it to the skies, the public still may be skeptical -- and the Democrats would be sure to get the blame. Couple that with a housing market that is likely years away from getting back to 2008 numbers, gas prices that are likely to rise, a jobless rate at 8.5% and rising, and a level of debt that has grown so large that it imperils the continued prosperity of our country -- and economic worries are still likely to be very prevalent in November of 2010.
4) How much lower can the Republicans go?: We are still a two-party country and after a couple of stupendously bad election cycles in a row, how much farther is the GOP even capable of falling at this point, absent a Whig-style complete meltdown? Just look at the numbers in the House:
Right now, we know that there are at least 70 if not more Democrats who sit in red districts....there are only five Republicans in districts that John Kerry won in 2004.
The numbers aren't quite as bleak for the Democrats in the Senate, but clearly, almost all the low hanging fruit has already been picked in the last two elections.
5) No Bush: George Bush was the leader of the Republican Party and with his approval in the low thirties in late 2006 and in the mid-twenties in late 2008, it was like every Republican running for office had strapped his boot laces to the Titanic. In 2010, the GOP isn't going to have one of the least popular Presidents in American history as its front man.
6) Barack Obama isn't going to be on the ballot: Obama will certainly be able to help the Democrats in 2010, even if his popularity has dropped significantly from where it is today, by raising money and doing campaign appearances. So, unless the bottom has completely fallen out of his presidency, he should be an asset for them.
However, he is not going to be on the ballot and thus far, he has shown little ability to mobilize his supporters to do anything other than vote for him. Will young voters and black voters turn out to vote if Obama isn't on the ticket?
Probably not. In fact, Obama may have a lot of trouble turning them out himself in 2012. After all, voting the first black President into office was a history-making event. Doing it again, on the other hand, would just be a boring vote for more-of-the-same.
7) Barack Obama's radicalism: So far, Obama has turned out to be worse than the worst case scenario that the GOP posited during the 2008 election. He is on pace to run up a larger deficit than every other U.S. President combined, he has repealed welfare reform, he's trying to take over and micromanage large segments of the economy, and via Cap and Trade he has proposed the largest tax increase in history -- one that would hit the poor and middle class particularly hard.
Even though Obama has been in office for less than ninety days, a lot of people who pulled the lever for him are probably already wishing there were more Republicans in office to help keep him from governing like such a Hugo Chavez wannabe.