Although trying to play Nostradamus with U.S. politics is always a risky endeavor, particularly this early in a political cycle, the odds would seem to heavily favor a GOP comeback in 2010.
Here's why the smart money should be on Elephants instead of Donkeys:
1) History is on our side: Typically, the party in power loses "23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president’s first midterm election."
Certainly, that's not always the case. For example, George Bush actually gained seats in the post-9/11 environment that the GOP ran in back in 2002, but you've still got to love our chances.
2) The GOP is starting to pull it together: Throughout George Bush's time in office, particularly in his last term, the GOP was a pile of mush that tried to please everyone and as a result, ended up pleasing no one. They talked ceaselessly about cutting the size of government, cutting the deficit, and enforcing immigration laws even as they expanded government, pumped up the deficit, and worked towards amnesty and open borders.
However, in the first two months of the Obama Administration, we've seen Republicans put teeth behind their rhetoric for the first time in eight years. For example, no Republican in the House and only three in the Senate voted for the Stimulus Bill whilenot a single Republican in Congress supported Obama's extravagant budget. For the first time in years, voters are being genuinely presented with a clear, unequivocal choice: capitalism or socialism? Out-of-control deficits that destroy America economically or fiscal responsibility? A government that believes in limits on its power or power-hungry statists who want to take permanent government control of banking, finance, the auto industry, the Internet, and health care? In a center-right country, that sort of clarity favors us.
3) The economy: Although we can be certain that the economy will eventually recover, probably some time between late 2009 and early-to-mid 2010 (although who really knows), the public's perception of the economy generally lags far behind actual economic growth.