John McCain is having a very tough time uniting conservatives and the political winds seem to be at the Democrats' backs; so many people seem to think that Barack Obama will win in a walk in November. However, that's probably not going to be the case.
In a normal year, where the public was more closely divided between the Dems and the GOP, McCain would be capable of wiping out a candidate as weak as Obama in a landslide of Dukakis-esque proportions. With that in mind, even in a year like this, where Obama has a huge advantage, chances are that if he wins, he'll have to pull it off by coming in on the right side of a 2000/2004 style squeaker of an election.
Here's a short but sweet primer that will help explain why that's the case:
Howard Dean 2.0
Although the mainstream media is working hard to cover for him, Obama is the most gaffe prone candidate to run for the Presidency on the Democratic side since Howard Dean. Some of his greatest hits include:
"You got into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
"You know, the truth is that right after 9/11, I had a (flag) pin. Shortly after 9/11, particularly because as we're talking about the Iraq war, that became a substitute for, I think, true patriotism, which is speaking out on issues that are of importance to our national security, I decided I won't wear that pin on my chest..."
"Over the last 15 months, we've traveled to every corner of the United States. I've now been in 57 states? I think one left to go."
Remember all the flack poor Dan Quayle caught for his "potato" snafu? Well, Barack Obama makes Dan Quayle look like Einstein.
Asymmetrical Politics: Republicans Act Like an Unruly Mob, Democrats Like a Regimented Army | Michael Barone