“In my 31 years living in Plattsburg, this is the first time that the
Democrats have a realistic chance to win a Congressional seat,” he
said. Schantz doesn’t attribute that solely to the divided
conservative ticket. “If you look at presidential votes, you'd see the
pro-Democratic trend for almost 20 years. I think its part of the
larger dynamic where the South moves towards the Republicans and the
Northeast moves towards the Democrats.”
Dr. Michael Ruddy, a political science professor from SUNY-Oswego,
said the same thing.
“When you dissect the [Republican] politics, it has a progressive look
to it,” said Ruddy. “There is an undercurrent of ‘closet
progressivism’ up this way. When you cut through these partisan
facades, you'll find it.”
So, depending on your vantage point, the race could demonstrate a
variety of things: a moderate GOP establishment out of touch with
conservative constituents, Republicans demonstrating their latent
liberal tendencies, or an entrenched political system that doesn’t
reflect any of the district’s political realities.
No matter what your politics, it’s impossible not to see the race as
just more evidence of “what happens” when a longstanding incumbent
leaves his seat and entrenched political parties fight like dogs over
the new unmarked territory. There have been only 4 Congressmen in the
district since the election of 1940.
Ron Seyb, Associate Professor of government at Sidmore College, said
that the entire process was unique no matter what it represented – and
that there was more drama to come even in the last few days leading up
to the election.
“For the Republican candidate to be threatened at all is just
extraordinary. This is going to be something we could’ve never
predicted two weeks ago,” said Seyb. “The dynamics of this race are
fairly nascent at this point.”