The total market value of all goods and services produced and sold domestically during the year is the Gross Domestic Product. Think of it as units of goods and services times a price level for the year.
For an increase in real economic activity to occur, more goods and services have to be produced and sold over that time period. If we simply produced and sold the same number of goods and services at twice the price level, the nominal GDP would double.
But would we be better off with the same stuff costing twice as much?
The quantity theory of money postulates that a change in the money supply results in a proportional change in prices. The idea is that you simply have more money chasing the same amount of goods, leading to inflation.
From 1953 until 1980, velocity averaged 1.68 per year. Velocity rose rapidly after 1990, peaking in 1997 at 2.12 per year.
What is the current velocity of money, and how has it changed?
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the GDP for 2008 was $14,347 billion. The average money supply (M2), according to the Federal Reserve, was $7,824 billion in 2008. The velocity of money for the year was 1.83.
In 2009, GDP was $14,256 billion, and the average money supply rose 7.6 percent to $8,421 billion. The velocity of money for the year was 1.69.
Why did velocity rise in 1997? Why has it fallen since, and what will happen in the future? Part of the rise and fall is explained by the use of credit through creative financial instruments (i.e., overextending credit); some was due to other non-credit-creating financial innovations.
The question now is whether velocity will remain at its 1953-1980's historic level or increase due to the changes in how we hold cash. Why does this matter? An increase in velocity without a decline in money supply or an increase in real goods and services would bring about an increase in inflation.
An increase in inflation would be one way to reduce the impact of our government debt (i.e., monetize the debt), but also would destroy the value of people's savings and investments.
One of Dr. Arnold's favorite sayings was, "There is no free lunch." We might want to keep that in mind as well.
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