The Democrats in the Senate who face voters in 2010 know they have drawn the short straw. Their colleagues who ran and won in 2006 and 2008 had the wind at their back. This class survived the George Bush win of 2004 only to now land in the middle of the blowback against President Obama and his huge lurch left. Even now aggressive groups like TalkPac.com are busy raising funds to deploy against those most vulnerable Senate Democrats who vote for cloture on Obamacare. The Democrats who had hoped to "hide" their support of Obamacare behind an eventual "no" vote as the bill passes into law have come to realize that in the era of new media, the electorate understands that the cloture vote is everything. To give a green light now is to own the bill that gets to the president's desk this year or next. There will be no shedding responsibility for the law if a yes vote on cloture is registered next week.
There are even three Democrats who are poised to just say no just because of the breadth and depth of the disaster contained in the fine print of Obamacare: Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Perhaps there are others.
The bizarre, extreme bill that emerged from the House last week puts new pressure on the Senate Demcrats. They know that no matter what comes out of the Senate, if a conference committee is convened, the wild-eyed House delegation will arrive demanding everything from prison for the non-insured to publicly funded abortions. The House ideologues want a fiery confrontation with the moderates and the conservatives. They relish the idea of a full throated battle over their hard left vision of America.
They come from safe districts. They can afford the spectacle. They won't feel the blowback.
But the senators know that the conference will produce a bill with a public option, with massive cuts to medicare, with near unified opposition from America's real doctors, not the suits at the AMA. They hear the army of walkers forming up and they know the AARP won't be able to protect them when word spreads of the premium shock and the long lines. When employers start to dump their work forces into the bare bones public option, the House lefties will smile and applaud, and the Senate Democrats will be looking for work.
It will be tough to tell Harry Reid "no" when he asks for the chance to just begin the debate. But they know that is to ask for the first step off the electoral cliff. Will they say yes and take the step?
Here's the contact number for the four most vulnerable Democrats in 2010. Let them know that a vote for cloture will put you in the field against them next fall, and that your wallet will open for their opponents immediately:
Sen. Evan Bayh, Indiana
DC Phone: (202) 224-5623
Local Phone: Evansville (812) 465-6500, Fort Wayne (260) 426-3151, Hammond (219) 852-2763, Indianapolis (317) 554-0750, Jeffersonville (812) 218-2317, Southbend (574) 236-8302
Link to E-mail
Sen. Michael Bennet, Colorado
DC Phone: 202) 224-5444
Local Phone:
Denver Metro Office: (303) 455-7600 Toll Free: (866) 455-9866 Fax: (303) 455-8851
Colorado Springs Office: Phone: (719) 328-1100
Link to E-mail.
Sen. Byron Dorgan, North Dakota
DC Phone: (202) 224-2551
Local Phone: Bismarck (701) 250-4618, Fargo (701) 239-5389, Minot (701) 852-0703, Grand Forks (701) 746-8972
Link to E-mail
Sen. Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas
DC Phone: (202) 224-4843
Local Phone: Dumas (870) 382-1023, Fayetteville (479) 251-1224, Little Rock (501) 375-2993, Jonesboro (870) 910-6896, Texarkana (870) 774-3106
Link to E-mail