Romney started at 5 percent in December, climbed to 9 percent in January and fell back to 4 percent in February — proof of the power of bad press to reverse momentum, but also no death knell as the campaign's success in fundraising and endorsements continues.
What these numbers tell us is that the known brand — McCain — is being abandoned in favor of another semiknown brand, Giuliani. Whether Giuliani can hold that affection as the press turns next to him as it did to Romney (the Politico got started today with a blast at Giuliani's judicial appointments certain to be distributed far and wide by anti-Rudy forces) remains to be seen. But is difficult to see how McCain can repair his standing with Republican primary voters.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton has the same problem as Sen. McCain: Everybody has a fixed opinion about her (and her husband.)
David Geffen's lacerating attack on her integrity was just the first of many reminders of the Clinton White House years in which she was a figure of importance second only to her husband.
Unlike the Republicans, though, there is no serious candidate to challenge her yet. I do not see the country in a time of war turning to a Chicago machine pol with three unremarkable years in the Senate as his claim on the White House.
If anything, John Edwards has even less of the experience needed for the job. Hillary is the formidable favorite because as fixed as her brand is, she cannot be said to be anything other than utterly serious about her intentions and experienced in a way that only proximity to the presidency can provide.